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V1per's Week 1 Survivor/Eliminator Pick
In case you're new to these posts, I'm going to lead with the basic explanation, and have my picks at the bottom. For all weeks going forward, I'll have picks first, than the nerdy stuff.
What is this?
SurvivoEliminator is a type of fantasy football game where you pick a single team to win each week. Each team is only allowed to be picked once per season. Once a team you pick loses, you've been eliminated until next season. The game ends at the end of the regular season, or when there is only one person left.
My weekly posts dive into who you should pick each week based on a purely mathematical perspective.
I get team win percentages from 538 for every game in the entire season. I update probabilities for the current week based on Vegas betting lines to better take into account current team situations that 538's computer models can't account for.
With all of these values, I run something called the Hungarian Algorithm which solves the best possible choices to maximize the total win percentage values. This makes sure to use each team when it's optimal to do so.
The method used for this maximizes your chance of making it through the whole season undefeated. This is ideal if you are in a very large (70+ person) league. If however, you are in a small league that is unlikely to have everyone make it to the end and the last person standing is the winner, than the above picks will be less than ideal. If you're in one of these smaller leagues, download the file below, enter your league size and get the team list specifically for your league.
Last year I got a lot of "well what if I have to pick multiple teams in week X?" or "What if my league, you have to pick only losers?" or "What about team A, B, or C this week?"
I tried to make the file as all encompassing as possible, so if your survivor league has some weird quark or wrinkle in it download the file and give it a shot. If the file still doesn't answer your question, let me know and I might add the feature in.
You can download the file here from Mediafire
Week 1 suggestions
The top picks this week are the Bills and Patriots.
|Rank||Team||P(Win this week)||P(Win Out)||E(Wins)|
Full Season Outlook
The beauty of this model is that it looks at the entire season as a whole. Assuming you pick the Bills this week, this is what the rest of the season's picks would look like based on what we know right now.
In case you aren't familiar with the notation, there is indeed a 0.8% chance of going the whole season undefeated. There are too many games and too many quality teams to reliably run deep every season. Last season I only made it to week 5 undefeated when a 2-2 Colts beat the 4-0 Chiefs at Arrowhead while being 10.5 point underdogs. These things happen, so don't blame me when I get a pick wrong.
Out of 17 weeks I only expect to get 13 games right. In the end, it's your team/league so pick who you like no matter what my algorithm says.