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Journey to 338 (V170, Q168): Tips, tricks, study materials review (Part 1: AWA and Verbal)

Hello GRE friends!
I recently took the GRE and made a "Testing Experience" post about it and had promised to make a future post discussing my ~1.5 ish month study plan and the tips & tricks that worked for me. I'd originally been planning to make this post after I got my official scores (including my AWA), but I've since gotten a ton of DMs from people asking about resources I used to study for each section, so I thought I'd make this post now rather than later in lieu of responding to everyone individually (sorry if I haven't gotten back to you..!), with the caveat that I'm going to piecemeal this in 2 parts (part 1 being AWA and Verbal, and part 2 being Quant) and may update this post after receiving my official AWA scores.
Fair warning that these will be rather lengthy posts (probably especially Part 2, as I spent the bulk of my efforts on Quant).
With that, let's begin! (Warning: some of what follows may devolve into a rant on certain study resources. Disclaimer: I'm not a tutor / teacher / expert by ANY means, so update your posteriors commensurately!)

Background & Priors

I explain my background and motivation in my very first post on this subreddit, so I'll skip the majority of that in the interest of time/space. The key parameters here are:
  • I took the exam the first weekend of Feb. This was my second time taking the GRE. On my first take ~1.2-1.5 years ago, I got a 170 Verbal (missed 0) / 161 Quant (missed so many I stopped looking lol) / 5.0 AWA
  • I was aiming to replicate my 170 from before but, at the end of the day, I was honestly going to be happy with anything 162+ (which roughly corresponds to a 90th percentile, iirc). Resultantly, I did not spend as much time / effort on practicing for the Verbal sections; that said, I still think I may have something to offer to the discussion in terms of my approaches to different Verbal problem types and my thoughts / review of the study materials out there (i.e. which ones I felt were good practice for the real deal).
  • Targeting a 5.0+ in the AWA, so not being quite as ambitious here as a lot of y'all. :)
  • Disclaimer: I'm going to be writing with the assumption that you're aiming for a 167+ (~98 percentile) in Verbal and already have a baseline of at least high 150s / ~160 give or take. While I think many of my sentiments towards study materials hold regardless of what baseline you're coming from, my advice for usage of materials and tips/tricks may not be as pertinent if you're looking to break into the 160s. Thus, please take all my advice with a large grain of salt depending on where you are, personally, in the study process.

Review of Study Materials & Study Tips


Besides practicing the Argument and Issue task every time I took a practice exam, the only preparation I did was watch u/gregmat's videos, in which he live-responds to Argument and Issue tasks while documenting his thought process and strategies. It's pretty freaking awesome—would highly recommend. I think I was pretty clueless as to how to approach the Argument task especially, and his videos literally took me from "scared of the Argument task and running out of time" to "it's actually kind of fun to pick apart an argument rife with unwarranted assumptions." So HUGE shoutout to u/gregmat—THANK YOU!!!!
Takeaway: u/gregmat rocks!!!


Between my first and second takes of the GRE, I tried out quite a lot of different materials, across several test prep companies. Here are my thoughts on them all (in relative descending order of usefulness):
  1. ETS Verbal Materials
  • I own both the Official Guide to the GRE (includes Verbal and Quant) and the Official Verbal Reasoning Practice Questions book (although I didn't acquire the latter book until after my first take, meaning that it's TOTALLY possible to get a 170 without it.. And quite frankly, I only completed the SE part of the latter book this second time around because I wanted to gauge / remember the difficulty level of the vocabulary).
  • How I used this resource: I bought the Official Guide to the GRE primarily for the 2 additional practice tests at the end of the book. I completed the first of the 2 practice tests.
  • Takeaway: I mention this in the practice test scores section, but I personally found the ETS materials to be harder than the real GRE, on both occasions of taking it (especially in terms of RC and SE; TC is very very close, imo). Nevertheless, these are by far the most similar / accurate.
  1. Magoosh vocab flashcards
  • This was the ONLY vocabulary-building resource I used. I used no other wordlists, and truth be told, I didn't even go through half of the "Advanced" decks they have.
  • How I used this resource: Around New Year's, I went quickly through all the "Basic" and "Common" decks and made sure I knew everything in there (I spent maybe 3 hours across 2 days doing this review). Then, I moved onto the "Advanced" decks. There are a total of 7 "Advanced" decks, of which I fully went through the first 3 (did this in a single sitting ~3 hours). By the 4th "Advanced" deck, I'd say you're going to start hitting the point of diminishing marginal returns. The benefit from the few additional words I might've learned from these decks (IV onwards) is significantly outweighed by the marginal time and mental real estate it would cost me to retain them. So I stopped and never looked at them again. I figured I'd retain what I did, and I didn't want to get bogged down on vocabulary, because from my first take, I felt that vocabulary was the LEAST essential to doing well for me.
  • HUGE CAVEAT: DO NOT USE THE DEFINITIONS GIVEN IN THE MAGOOSH DECKLIST. I may be overreacting but I find that they often don't include the real nuance / connotations of the word in their definitions, only surface-level meanings. I'd recommend, for each word you don't know, looking it up in dictionary.com or something and looking up example sentences as well, as opposed to just blindly memorizing Magoosh's half-baked definitions. I also feel that sometimes they downright CONFUSE connotations. See this example of a Magoosh article on confusing words: for the purposes of the GRE, "Gregarious v. Garrulous" shouldn't even be compared. The former is nearly ALWAYS positively connoted, while "garrulous" carries, BY DEFINITION, a negative connotation. The fact that they would even perceive these two words to be close / synonyms and NOT EXPLAIN THE CLEAR DIFFERENCE in an article meant to clarify confusing words, is just baffling to me. The GRE would never ask you to select these two as synonyms because they're not, and hence NOT confusing. To suggest that they're confusing / similar is to stir true confusion, imo.
  • Takeaway: This may be a highly unpopular sentiment, but I honestly don't believe vocabulary knowledge is the difference between a low 160s score vs. a 170 (see my practice test scores takeaway for more on why I feel this way). The difference, in my opinion, is in familiarity with "second-order usage"—both in RC and especially in SE (I'd also argue that the hardest TC questions are "logic" questions NOT "vocab" questions). What I mean by that is really having a feel for the connotations and contexts in which a certain word is being used is FAR more important, in my experience, than cramming in a few more surface-level definitions (or, god forbid, memorizing roots—I really think memorizing roots to try to be able to "guess" at meanings of words you don't know is a pure waste of time...but to each his own). So my advice here kind of boils down to the "80-20" rule: I believe that 20% of the "usual suspect" words on the GRE pull 80% of the total weight in terms of words you end up seeing / relying on truly knowing (okay the real ratio might be closer to 65-35 but you get the idea), so I'd recommend focusing on "fewer" words but knowing them better—depth over breadth, quality over quantity.
    • To that end, when reviewing / learning vocabulary, I think it's a useful exercise to review them by "word pairs" (or tuples, etc.)—both so that you don't mix up positive/negative connotations and/or meanings, and because it's good practice for the SE parts of the Verbal. :)
      • A couple examples of word-pairings that I always like to keep top-of-mind (again, not hard words, but words that I feel like are GRE/SAT "usual suspects"): laconic-terse-taciturn-reticent (note slight differences in contextual usage and how laconic and terse are more similar than laconic and reticent), garrulous-loquacious, judicious-prudent-provident (note how prudent and provident are more similar because both are typically used to describe plans for the future, whereas judicious doesn't necessarily carry that implication), etc. this kind of thought process is how I'd probably recommend trying to file away words / their implied meanings.
    • In this vein, there's a "2-degrees of separation" rule that I apply in SE cases when I'm unsure between a few likely choices. More on this in the final section.
Quite frankly everything else is kind of really, really subpar both as a reliable barometer of study progress and as a proxy for the real thing (so the ranking is kind of meaningless here on out, but here are my thoughts anyway):
  1. Manhattan
  • RC book: I used this the first time I took the GRE and I think it helped acquaint me with the format of the test / questions asked, and considering this was one of the few Verbal resources I used the first time around, I won't not recommend it.. It's not great, but I also don't think it's the plague. If you use this, just know that you're studying for Manhattan's version of the GRE and learning Manhattan's logic / close reading strategies by drilling these problems, and Manhattan's way of thinking is inherently different from ETS's; that said, if you need practice with exposure to a wide swath of topics that you'd only ever find on a standardized test (in my case, science writing is the bane of my existence.. one more paragraph about molecules in craters on the moon, I swear..), then it's not the worst resource, and if you're already in the mid-160s range, I don't think this will hurt you irreparably, but that's hardly a ringing endorsement.
  • Online practice tests: To be honest, used these for more Math practice and kind of winged the Verbal sections knowing I'd probably do badly on them but also not caring because they're not at all representative of the real test, alas.
    • I will say that I felt that the Manhattan passages were longer than the real thing, so maybe this is good exercise for your eyeballs..lol really reaching here
  • Warning: PLEASE AVOID MANHATTAN TC QUESTIONS. I consider TC to be one of my strengths and doing Manhattan TC questions made me worse at TC because their TC questions are founded on "do you know XYZ words" whereas the real test focuses on "logic." Case in point that I keep harping on but only because I really believe in this: on the real GRE, the "hardest problems" are three-blank TC questions that don't grill you on vocab knowledge but instead focus on convoluted sentence logic to test whether you understand what the sentence is trying to imply. It's not even a matter of not being able to correctly do Manhattan TC questions; I can do them just fine. The problem lies in the fact that Manhattan TC questions make you complacent about sentence complexity and don't challenge you in the way the real test does.
  • Takeaway: I'm a HUGE fan of Manhattan's Math materials, so this was a massive bummer.
  1. Magoosh
  • I had a premium subscription in order to get more Quant practice in. This time around, I only did Magoosh Verbal as part of a full-length "practice test," i.e. I did not do separate drilling for the Verbal section.
  • Warning: Avoid Magoosh RC (and honestly Magoosh anything Verbal-wise)
  • Takeaway: Avoid. I find so much of the Magoosh Verbal to be downright nonsensical. I literally do not understand how they come up with the questions / answers they do and still believe their material is even remotely similar to the real thing.. It's jarringly different, especially their RC, and I found myself internally arguing with their answers, which fixate on very silly things and often miss the main point of passages (that is, of the passages that even had a point to them..). For reference, as an example of how poor a predictor Magoosh Verbal is, the first time I took the exam, I did all of their Verbal practice questions (stubbornly refusing to give into their style) and they predicted my Verbal range to be something along the lines of 158-162.. I ended up getting a 170.

Verbal Practice Test Scores

  • Magoosh 1 (5 sections, experimental math section, did not do AWA): 164 (It's only this high because I practically forced myself to select stupid answers even if I disagreed.. Had I not, probably would've been closer to 160)
  • Manhattan 3 (1 essay, VQVQ): 165 (I literally never score this high on Manhattan because their questions include so many ridiculous words that ETS would never, ever use lol)
  • Manhattan 4 (2 essays, VQVQ): 161
  • ETS free online 1: 169
  • ETS free online 2: 166
  • ETS paper 1: 170
  • Takeaway: As you can see, I did better on the ETS materials' Verbal sections, and quite frankly, If you're in the 160s range, I wouldn't worry about the Manhattan / Magoosh scores at all if you're taking those practice tests, because they're NOTHING like the real thing... In my opinion, the real GRE Verbal section is similar to ETS online #1 in difficulty level (and easier than ETS online #2), if not easier. Per my experience BOTH TIMES, the real thing is WAYYYY "easier" (in terms of demands on vocabulary) than any practice materials.

Tips & Tricks for Verbal

Reminder of disclaimer: these are my own random tips & tricks that worked for me, but of course I'm neither a GRE tutor nor teacher of any kind, so use at your own peril. :)
Sentence Equivalence (i.e. choose 2 words that best complete the sentence and yield similar meanings, aka find synonyms that make the sentence make sense)
  • General approach:
    • Before seeing the answer choices, try to come up with the best single-choice word to fit in the blank. Then look for that word + a synonym. This works ~90% of the time.
    • If that fails, eliminate all words that have no synonym. Among the remaining words, apply "2-degrees of separation" rule.
  • Hard problems (i.e. the 10%):
    • When even eliminating choices doesn't quite get you down to the 2 answers I need, I apply what I'm going to call the "2-degrees of separation" rule when dealing with sentences with multiple seemingly "correct" answers. The basic idea is to compare pairs of potential answers, and for each pair of words, to try to find a 3rd word (that is NOT one of the answer choices) that sits between the two potential synonyms and "connects" them. For example, suppose you're left with the following choices after eliminating some obviously incorrect ones: "canny," "resourceful," "sagacious," "tactful." In the context of a sentence describing someone as a self-made industry titan thanks to their being _____ in navigating business connections or something—all three are rather tempting choices. For someone to be self-made, it's likely the case that they're all 4 of these words and more..! But given that our goal is to find 2 synonyms, I would apply the "2-degrees of separation" and try out pairs of words as follows:
      • (word A, word B): Is there some word that I'd be happy choosing as a synonym of "word A" that I would also be satisfied with as a synonym for "word B"? The one that comes to mind immediately is (canny, sagacious) can be joined together by "shrewd" or "astute." Thus, this would be the correct pair, as they are better-choice synonyms (and incidentally, if the context of the sentence is business success, "canny" would probably be the best single-choice word, so I'd feel really good about choosing "canny" + the other word that is closest in meaning, as demonstrated by our being able to insert "shrewd" in between "canny" and "sagacious").
      • I find this strategy to be most useful when dealing with questions in which the answers don't strike me as perfect synonyms. I tend to struggle to find an apt 2nd word after finding the best single-choice word (as opposed to the flip-side problem of not being able to eliminate enough words), so this helps me connect the dots between words. One example of this that I remember coming across: I remember reading the sentence (about the argument in a work of literary writing or something) and immediately thinking "cursory" would be the perfect fit. That was indeed an answer choice; however, the other choices were things like "fleeting," "perfunctory," etc. None of which really felt like the perfect fit. Although they both imply speed, to use "fleeting" to describe an argument felt really awkward.. (fleeting-transient-ephemeral I associate with forces of nature / things beyond human control. E.g. fleeting beauty of flowers, ephemerality of youth, etc., as if there's almost a wistfulness / nostalgia to the word itself), and I feel that "perfunctory" holds a connotation of doing something quickly out of duty / indifference to that duty, which didn't entirely fit the bill in my opinion. BUT applying the "2-degrees of separation" idea, I felt that "hasty" was a word that I could live with thinking of as synonyms to each of the word: (cursory, hasty), (hasty, perfunctory).
  • Takeaway: ime, the correct answer pair will always have a third word that sits between, and connects, the two.
Reading Comprehension
  • Potentially hot take: RC isn't about reading comprehension; it's about answer-choice comprehension. RC questions are hard because the answer choices are nuanced / difficult to understand, NOT because the passage itself is hard. Therefore, to minimize errors, spend more time reading the answer choices and less time reading the passages, ceteris paribus.
    • Hear me out on this: If you're in the low-160s range already, there probably isn't a single passage that you read but did not understand. You get the main point, you generally know what's going on, and you probably even have a few nice takeaways of your own—e.g. if you had to write an essay about the author's attitudes towards X scholar's theories about Y person's artwork, you could totally do that. BUT, imo, the GRE isn't really testing you on how much of the passage you understood (when you're at a 163 aiming for a 168, i.e. we're talking those "hard RC questions", which I feel like you only really see 2-3 of on test day, ime, but they're important to get right if you want a near-perfect score); it's testing you on how well you understand different interpretations of the passage. I.e. how well you can make sense of "other people" (as proxied by the various answer choices) trying to understand and / or misinterpreting the nuance of the passage.
    • Strategy: Given that, my general approach is to read the passage as quickly as I can (but still in an immersive way so that I remember the gist of main points / counterarguments, etc. and can quickly reference which paragraph they're in when I need to recall points), with the goal of never needing to reread it again (ofc I may end up rereading it, but the attitude is there). Then, I really, really take my time with the answer choices. I read each answer choice and ask myself the following:
      • What part of this answer choice is wrong?
      • If I can pinpoint which part of the answer choice's statement is wrong, then I ask (and this is crucial): Why would someone mistakenly believe this answer choice to be right? Where in the passage were they led astray? Pay especial attention to specific wording in the answer choice. In my experience, I feel that the GRE plays "by extension" tricks in the hardest RC questions, meaning they'll make a nearly correct statement, but it is about "the XXX of YYY" rather than about "YYY" itself, e.g. "Author A refutes the construction of the argument of Author B because of (insert correct interpretation)"; HOWEVER, Author A is actually refuting the argument itself, and NOT its construction; this may be particularly tempting when Authors A and B arrive at different conclusions using similar but different methodologies, and hence reminiscent yet contrasting "constructions."
    • When / if I'm stuck between 2 answer choices that both seem imperfect but also not horrendous, I use a "regret minimization" tactic: I think about which answer I'd regret not standing behind more were I to choose the other answer and find out that I was wrong. This trick is more a purely psychological tactic to get me to mark this question and move on.
  • Beyond that, if you have a lot of time before your exam, and even if you have only a few weeks, READ READ READ lots of high-quality journals and books—things like The Economist and The New Yorker are fantastic training for the social science, arts and history passages you'll encounter, and often far more nuanced.
  • Takeaway: I believe the nuance / difficulty of RC lies in the answer choices, not the passage itself.
Text Completion
  • I have the least helpful advice for this section, aside from reiterating my belief that the hardest questions in this section (i.e., "three-blank sentences") are difficult because sentence logic is difficult and sometimes the correct answer choices will add a layer of nuance to the entirety of the sentence, so it's your job to pick out what that nuance is beforehand.
  • General approach: Make note of words that portend a shift / change that will occur in the following clause (i.e. not the clause in which this word is attached to), e.g. "while," "although," "despite," but also things like "having" or "given" when used as a sentence starter. For example, "Having ____, the woman was unwarrantedly uncertain of a ______ result, indeed despite ______".
    • This is just a simple, random example I completely made up to illustrate a point (GRE does a WAY better job of coming up with examples, but bear with my contrived example), but the idea is that I would try to abstract away from the content of the sentence and use "first blank" "third blank" etc. as placeholders to think through and rephrase the sentence (especially to get rid of double negatives, etc.) so as to understand the blanks' relation to one another. For example, here the logic (of course also depends on what choices you're given to choose from) could plausibly be that the woman should feel more certain about a (second blank) type of result because the thing in the (first blank) happened and may be supported by something in the (third blank).
      • E.g. completed sentence: Having done her due diligence, the woman was unwarrantedly uncertain of a propitious outcome, indeed despite all evidence in her favor.
  • Takeaway: I believe the hardest TC questions on the GRE are testing sentence logic more so than vocabulary knowledge.

That's all!

I'm sure there's stuff I forgot to cover, but this is already far too long of a post. Comment / DM me if you have comments / criticisms / concerns! Thank you all for being an awesome community throughout this GRE journey, and good luck to all of you in the throes of studying!!
submitted by greinterstice to GRE

The RB1s - An End of Season Analysis and Rankings of the top Dynasty RBs

At the end of each season, it is important to put in perspective how much the landscape of the fantasy football world has changed. To me, the best way to truly measure how the tide has shifted in the Dynasty community was to do an in-depth analysis of each player’s statistics for the 2019 season compared to previous years, take a look at the usage and injuries they’ve had so far in their careers, and use any external factors relevant to their specific team to see where they rank respectively to their fellow players and their situations. Furthermore, a separation into different tier groups is necessary to see just how far ahead some groups of RBs are compared to others. Some RBs have talents and situations that others could only dream of having. Others have limitations that if they could just overcome, they too could be in that top echelon of fantasy superstars. My purpose was to analyze the top RBs and form a Top 12 to represent the current Dynasty RB1s, then break that group down into tiers to represent where they truly stand in comparison to the other RBs and to point out their strengths and weaknesses to see possible paths they have to fantasy superstardom. I decided to only do the top RBs due to the fact that anything beyond that point tends to become speculation this early in the offseason. I may update these rankings in a seperate post after the NFL Draft happens and we can see how the NFL landscape settles.
For this analysis, I have used Half PPR scoring with the points totals and most statistics coming from FantasyPros. I have also used Pro Football Reference to glean necessary Yds After Contact (YAContact), Yds After Catch (YACatch), Yds Before Contact (YBContact), and Broken Tackles information, as well as PFF’s Offensive Line rankings to put in perspective some of these guys’ O-Line situations. If you have any questions about where I got a certain stat, let me know and I’ll try to find a link for you.
Now, let’s get on to what most of you probably already skipped to.

Tier 1

This tier is where you’ll find those guys that are fantasy legend, the young guys who could carry you to the playoffs almost on their own if you know how to set a line up. In some cases, their abilities are so good you can ignore situation because they will find a way to produce, and produce at an elite level. This season, only 2 players are worthy of this tier.

1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers

2019 Stats
  • 16 Games, 413.2 fantasy points, 25.8 PPG, +152.3 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,387 Rush yds/15 Rush TDs/287 carries/4.8 yds per carry/513 YAContact
  • Receiving: 1,005 Rec yds/4 Rec TDs/116 Recs/142 targets/8.7 yds per rec/1,019 YACatch
  • Notes: 15 Rush TDs more than doubles his previous career high of 7 from 2018, likely due to the effect of Cam Newton being out most of the season leading them to rely on McCaffrey to be their red zone threat. Watch for these numbers to have a significant regression even if Cam does not return. However, it is also worth noting that 4 Rec TDs is actually a career low, although his other 2 seasons were just 5 and 6 TDs respectively. That YACatch number isn’t out of the ordinary for RBs but it’s just eye-popping to see 1K YACatch, as is the monstrous difference between CMC and the average RB1 in terms of fantasy points for the 2019 season.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 23 years old
  • 3 seasons played, 623 carries, 303 Recs, 926 total touches
  • 2017: 16 games played, 117 carries, 80 Recs, 197 total touches
  • 2018: 16 games played, 219 carries, 107 Recs, 326 total touches
  • 2019: 16 games played, 287 carries, 116 Recs, 403 total touches
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Fantasy Monster. This man was a RB1 and WR1 in a single package this year, and if you played against him that week, you were praying to every god you could that he’d only score 20 points on you. For Dynasty purposes, he figures to be the RB1 for the next couple of years, because even in the situation he was in this year with terrible quarterback play he still put up one of the all-time great fantasy seasons. I do project that next year his volume will decrease, mainly as a side effect of new head coach Matt Rhule wanting to preserve his best weapon so he can rely on him for the duration of the 6 year contract Rhule received, but make no mistake: CMC will be in the top tier of fantasy RBs for the foreseeable future.

2. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants

2019 Stats
  • 13 Games, 218.1 fantasy points, 16.8 PPG, -42.8 total pt difference from average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,003 Rush yds/6 Rush TDs/217 carries/4.6 yds per carry/605 YAContact
  • Receiving: 438 Rec yds/2 Rec TDs/52 Recs/73 targets/8.4 yds per rec/438 YACatch
  • Notes: Obviously had struggles this year after the high ankle sprain, but by the end of the season he did look back to form, albeit against the Dolphins and Redskins. TDs were down from last year but that’s definitely due to the offense’s struggles to do anything else but run him up the middle, which makes that YAContact number all the more impressive. Definitely a downtick in receptions stemming from Daniel Jones throwing more downfield rather than checking down to Saquon, but still impressive numbers for an RB regardless.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 22 years old
  • 2 seasons played, 478 carries, 143 Recs, 621 total touches
  • 2018: 16 games played, 261 carries, 91 Recs, 352 total touches
  • 2019: 13 games played, 217 carries, 52 Recs, 269 total touches
    • Missed 3 games due to high ankle sprain
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Some people may be questioning why I put Saquon in the same tier as CMC with his struggles this year. As I said, I do believe that CMC’s volume will decrease, so that is one factor, but the biggest change is that I believe will happen is that Saquon will see his TD numbers spike in the coming seasons as the offense takes another step forward. He will have positive TD regression from the 6 rushing TDs he had this year, and I believe that his reception numbers will stay at about the same pace, putting him back at the fantasy output he had during the 2018 season. Another key reason I kept him in the top tier was his just freakish athletic and body profile. Guys with Saquon’s build and athleticism are once in a generation, and we’ll see that influence his career well into his later years. I believe we’ll be seeing these two RBs swapping RB1 finishes for quite a while.

Tier 2

Not everyone can be the best, and that’s okay if you can at least get to this tier. RBs in this tier are still top-of-the-line and will be extremely solid throughout their careers. They have a chance to rise to Tier 1 if their conditions or abilities improve, but even if they don’t, these guys are certainly worth trying to acquire and own in any league.

3. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

2019 Stats
  • 14 Games, 208.0 fantasy points, 14.9 PPG, -52.9 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 797 Rush yds/5 Rush TDs/177 carries/4.7 yds per carry/401 YAContact
  • Receiving: 533 Rec yds/1 Rec TD/81 Recs/97 targets/6.6 yds per rec/550 YACatch
  • Notes: Kamara had a really rough year in terms of TDs, going from the 18 total he had in 2018 to only 6 in 2019. This makes him a candidate for positive TD regression next year but I’m sure a lot of people have figured that out already. The real factor we’ll want to watch is his Yds Per Rec number, as it dipped down significantly to 6.6 from 8.8 in 2018. With the signing of Jared Cook last year, it looks like the offense now prefers to hit him on routes Kamara may have been running, as Kamara only broke 6 yards per catch twice from Weeks 10-17, coincidentally the time when Drew Brees had come back from injury and where Jared Cook caught fire and fixed a lot of fantasy players’ TE problems, mine included. Cook mixed in with Taysom Hill as well also had a ton of reception TDs, further taking away from Kamara’s TD totals this year.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 24 years old
  • 3 seasons played, 485 carries, 243 Recs, 728 total touches
  • 2017: 16 games played, 120 carries, 81 Recs, 201 total touches
  • 2018: 15 games played, 194 carries, 81 Recs, 275 total touches
    • Sat out Week 17 due to clinching home field advantage
  • 2019: 14 games played, 171 carries, 81 Recs, 252 total touches
    • Missed 2 games due to knee and ankle injuries
Reasoning For Ranking
  • I could have put Zeke at 3 over Kamara but ultimately chose not to because of the massive difference in how they’re used on the field. While Zeke may have more TDs guaranteed to go his way in his offense, Kamara simply has much more tread left on the tires at this point. Kamara hasn’t even hit 500 regular season carries in his career yet, whereas Zeke has just crossed the 1,000 carries marker that a lot of RBs begin to deteriorate after reaching. Kamara also notches receptions at ridiculously consistent rate, as he’s had exactly 81 receptions each season he’s played in the NFL. If I’m looking for an RB who will be as consistent in yearly value for the next 5 years, I’m taking Kamara over Zeke. If you’re a win now team, Zeke should of course be ahead of Kamara here, but don’t expect him to stay as productive as Kamara will be later on down the road even with the younger QB.

4. Ezekiel Elliot, Dallas Cowboys

2019 Stats
  • 16 Games, 284.7 fantasy points, 17.8 PPG, +23.8 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,357 Rush yds/12 Rush TDs/301 carries/4.5 yds per carry/679 YAContact
  • Receiving: 420 Rec yds/2 Rec TDs/54 Recs/71 targets/7.8 yds per rec/395 YACatch
  • Notes: This year was fairly consistent with previous ones, as he had a similar Yds Per Carry of 4.5 to his career average of 4.6. This was his bounce back year for Rush TDs as he increased his total from 6 in 2018 to 12 in 2019, a textbook case of positive regression for a star player. A significant change I saw in his rushing stats however was his YAContact, jumping from 595 to 679 despite 77 fewer Rush Yds. Also looking at the Yds Before Contact numbers (839 to 678), it looks like his line’s rush blocking ability decreased forcing Zeke to shoulder more of the load upon himself to get yards this year. Turning to his receiving numbers, his receptions did decrease from the 77 he had last year, but it looks like he will become much more reliable now year to year in terms of receptions and involvement in the passing game.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 24 years old
  • 4 seasons played, 1,169 carries, 189 Recs, 1,358 total touches
  • 2016: 15 games played, 322 carries, 32 Recs, 354 total touches
    • Rested for playoffs Week 17
  • 2017: 10 games played, 242 carries, 26 Recs, 268 total touches
    • Suspended 6 games for violating NFL Domestic Abuse Policy
  • 2018: 15 games played, 304 carries, 77 Recs, 326 total touches
    • Rested for playoffs Week 17
  • 2019: 16 games played, 301 carries, 54 Recs, 355 total touches
Reasoning For Ranking
  • There’s not much left to say about Zeke that most people don’t already know. He’s consistent, doesn’t get injured, and he’s on a young offense with a great line. I’m not worried about the addition of Mike McCarthy as I’m sure McCarthy knows the caliber of RB that Zeke is and will use him as such. The only question is how much McCarthy will decide to use Zeke in the passing game. With Witten likely gone, Zeke could be in line to get more short check-downs again from Dak, bumping up those reception numbers again. We don’t really know what the new look offense from McCarthy will be like so it’s honestly foolish to speculate it based on past systems he ran in Green Bay, but I do believe that he will be able to keep Zeke a top tier fantasy RB for the next few years.

5. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

2019 Stats
  • 16 Games, 237.2 fantasy points, 14.8 PPG, -23.7 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,494 Rush yds/8 Rush TDs/298 carries/5.0 yds per carry/882 YAContact
  • Receiving: 278 Rec yds/0 Rec TDs/36 Recs/49 targets/7.7 yds per rec/318 YACatch
  • Notes: At least Freddie kinda figured out he needed to form the offense around Chubb, and hopefully Stefanski will do the same. Chubb’s rushing abilities are second to none in the NFL in my opinion, and the stats help prove that with a ridiculous 5.0 Yds Per Carry and 3.0 YAContact Per Carry. Give this man a run blocking line that’s not bottom 10 in the league and he might just have the potential to go for 2K rushing yards at some point. His receiving ability is what will hold him back from being a Tier 1 fantasy RB in his career, but he definitely can improve there and maybe have a Zeke-like jump in his reception numbers if he works on it and Hunt leaves in FA. Don’t be surprised if he gets 45 receptions or more next year.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 24 years old
  • 2 seasons played, 490 carries, 56 Recs, 546 total touches
  • 2018: 16 games played, 192 carries, 20 Recs, 212 total touches
  • 2019: 16 games played, 298 carries, 36 Recs, 334 total touches
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Chubb is one of the best pure rushers to come into the league in years, with vision and burst that lets him carry any team’s running game no matter how bad their blocking is. With Kevin Stefanski coming to town, hopefully he brings the zone blocking/running scheme that’s worked so well to propel Dalvin Cook to be a top RB. Even if he doesn’t, any offense he incorporates should have Chubb as a centerpiece, seeing as Chubb’s rushing ability alone can dictate how defenses set up their down-by-down plays. Chubb is on an offense that should honestly be electric with how many playmakers there are on it, and eventually it should click in Cleveland. Hopefully with some investment in the line, at least his TD numbers should rise just from being able to convert the goal line rushes. I don’t know how many games I watched where they’d be inside the 5 yd line and couldn’t convert in 3 downs just due the line getting absolutely blown off the ball. If they can fix that problem alone, Chubb could be in line for some ridiculous TD numbers.

Tier 3

This is what I would call the Question Mark Tier, as each of these guys has enough questions hanging over their careers to warrant not placing them in Tier 2. For some it might be injury concerns, for others it might be offensive situation, and for anyone else it could be questions of ability. Regardless, if these guys can address their shortcomings, they could be heading to Tier 2 or maybe even Tier 1.

6. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings

2019 Stats
  • 14 Games, 265.9 fantasy points, 19.0 PPG, +5.0 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,135 Rush yds/13 Rush TDs/250 carries/4.5 yds per carry/596 YAContact
  • Receiving: 519 Rec yds/0 Rec TDs/53 Recs/63 targets/9.8 yds per rec/591 YACatch
  • Notes: A lot of people attribute Cook’s success to the new running scheme this season, but don’t discount his ability because of it. His Yds Per Carry was actually a career low (granted he had 4.8 and 4.6 in 2017 and 2018 respectively), but he shown an ability to be a terrific scoring threat this year, going from 2 TDs in 11 games last year to 13 in 14 games in 2019. That’s an increase from 66.5 carries per TD to 19.2 this season. Definitely keep in mind a possible regression as well, but his ability to score rushing TDs was right up there with CMC. Also keep an eye out for a possible regression from the 9.8 YACatch number this season, as his previous seasons were only 8.2 and 7.6.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 24 years old
  • 3 seasons played, 457 carries, 104 Recs, 561 total touches
  • 2017: 4 games played, 74 carries, 11 Recs, 85 total touches
    • Missed 12 games due to ACL tear
  • 2018: 11 games played, 133 carries, 40 Recs, 173 total touches
    • Missed 1 game due to Grade 1 Hamstring Sprain
    • Missed 4 games due to Grade 2 Hamstring Sprain from re-injury
  • 2019: 14 games played, 250 carries, 53 Recs, 303 total touches
    • Missed 2 games due to shoulder injury
Reasoning For Ranking
  • I couldn’t place Dalvin ahead of Chubb or even in Tier 2 for one reason: the injuries. The man seemingly can’t handle a season-long workload without somehow sustaining an injury. You thought that he was gonna do it this year, that he was going to play a 16 game slate for the first time in his career, then he banged up his shoulder again and made you start Mike Boone in the championship game. Until Cook plays a full slate of 16 regular season games, I can’t have him as a true elite dynasty RB. If you’re going to own Cook as your top RB, you have to have another RB1 as an insurance clause in case he goes down, and to me that is what puts him out of contention as a Tier 2 RB.

7. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans

2019 Stats
  • 15 Games, 285.5 fantasy points, 19.0 PPG, +24.6 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,540 Rush yds/16 Rush TDs/303 carries/5.1 yds per carry/968 YAContact
  • Receiving: 206 Rec yds/2 Rec TDs/18 Recs/24 targets/11.4 yds per rec/229 YACatch
  • Notes: King Henry is just a freak of nature. I don’t think much needs to be said of his rushing ability: the 5.1 Yds Per Carry and 3.2 YAContact Per Carry numbers say all that’s needed about that. What needs attention is the 16 Rush TDs he had this year, as that will likely regress no matter how good he is. However, I would expect the same amount of Rush Yds if not more next year, Henry will be the centerpiece of this offense for the foreseeable future. As always, don’t expect much work in the passing game from Henry, and don’t think that those 2 Rec TDs will be there either next year, he’s only had 1 in the previous 3 years of his career.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 26 years old
  • 4 seasons played, 804 carries, 57 Recs, 861 total touches
  • 2016: 15 games played, 110 carries, 13 Recs, 123 total touches
    • Missed 1 game due to calf strain
  • 2017: 16 games played, 176 carries, 16 Recs, 192 total touches
  • 2018: 16 games played, 215 carries, 15 Recs, 230 total touches
  • 2019: 15 games played, 303 carries, 18 Recs, 321 total touches
    • Missed 1 game due to hamstring strain
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Honestly, if he keeps going off in these playoffs, I might have to move him higher. Henry is just on a tear that we knew was possible, but we had written off due to the early stages of his career. Since Tannehill came in at QB and helped reverse the Titans’ fortunes, Henry has averaged an absurd 5.8 Yds Per Carry Weeks 7-17 and has become a premier RB in the league. Tennessee will now try to re-sign and build around him, Tannehill, and AJ Brown for the foreseeable future and see what this core can do for them. Henry has checked off all of the boxes to be a top tier fantasy RB, but due to his low usage in the passing game I’d like to see if Tennessee can sustain their offensive success next year before I fully recognize him as a Tier 2 RB. The nice thing is that due to low usage early in his career, Henry hasn’t crossed the 1,000 regular season carries mark yet, although they are milking him for all they can get in the playoffs. With Henry’s large build, when his decline comes, it will come fast. However, he’s got a quite a few years left in the tank, so do not be afraid to buy him right now, it might even be a discount compared to where he might be next year.

8. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

2019 Stats
  • 16 Games, 208.0 fantasy points, 13.0 PPG, -52.9 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,137 Rush yds/5 Rush TDs/278 carries/4.1 yds per carry/645 YAContact
  • Receiving: 287 Rec yds/3 Rec TDs/35 Recs/45 targets/8.2 yds per rec/331 YACatch
  • Notes: Mixon was part of an awful offense this year but he still managed to salvage some production out of it, somehow getting 8 total TDs on the year. The biggest step back for Mixon this year was his Yds Per Carry, going from 4.9 in 2018 to 4.1 in 2019. However, looking at his Yds Before Contact Per Carry numbers, they dropped from a very high 2.7 in 2018 to an abysmal 1.8 this year. That Cincy O-Line regressed hard in run blocking this year, and well, any blocking in general. Hopefully with their 2018 1st Round pick Jonah Williams coming back and some investment into their line during this draft, Mixon can have an at least average line to run behind next year. Another interesting note is that Mixon increased his broken tackles on rushes from 6 to 24 this year, so if this carries over to next year with an improved line, we could be looking at some ridiculous rushing numbers.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 23 years old
  • 3 seasons played, 693 carries, 108 Recs, 801 total touches
  • 2017: 14 games played, 178 carries, 30 Recs, 208 total touches
    • Missed 2 games due to Grade 2 Concussion
  • 2018: 14 games played, 237 carries, 43 Recs, 280 total touches
    • Missed 2 games due to having arthroscopic surgery on right knee
  • 2019: 16 games played, 278 carries, 35 Recs, 313 total touches
Reasoning For Ranking
  • One year ago, Mixon led the AFC in rushing yds, showing the potential he had to be a top tier RB in both the league and fantasy football. This year he played a full 16 game slate, showing that he is a reliable RB for his team and his fantasy owners. The only piece of the trifecta left to be a true top tier RB is to play on an at least average offense. With Joe Burrow likely coming into Cincy to be the franchise QB, Mixon will have a young QB to mesh with and a chance to finally break into the top tier of RBs that so many have been predicting he will become. We’ll have to keep an eye on how involved he becomes in the passing game as well, but he has been consistent with 30-40 receptions per year so far, and it’s really his running ability that will make him a top tier RB. All in all, it’s a waiting game to see if he can reach his true potential in this league.

9. Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars

2019 Stats
  • 15 Games, 221.4 fantasy points, 14.8 PPG, -39.5 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,152 Rush yds/3 Rush TDs/265 carries/4.3 yds per carry/792 YAContact
  • Receiving: 522 Rec yds/0 Rec TDs/76 Recs/100 targets/6.9 yds per rec/558 YACatch
  • Notes: If you told me Leonard Fournette would have 100 targets and 76 receptions this year, I would have laughed in your face. Turns out I was wrong and John DeFilippo likes to pass a ton even if most of his WRs suck. I would wager a reason why Fournette had so many receptions was due to Jacksonville’s O-Line having terrible pass protection and forcing their QBs to hit Fournette on the check-down early in the play, but even if that pass protection gets better next year don’t expect Fournette to go back to his days of 30-40 receptions, he’s proven to be a weapon in the passing game now. Look for a positive TD regression from the measly 3 he had this year and an improvement in the Yds Per Rec category as well, he averaged 8.4 in both years prior to this one. Speaking of improvements, he really stepped it up in YAContact Per Carry this year, going from 1.7 to 3.0 in 2019. His line was also somehow worse than Cincy’s at getting yards for him too, as his YBContact Per Carry was 1.36. Honestly, the Jags just need to blow up that whole line at this point.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 25 years old
  • 3 seasons played, 666 carries, 134 Recs, 800 total touches
  • 2017: 13 games played, 268 carries, 36 Recs, 304 total touches
    • Missed 1 game due to ankle sprain
    • Missed 1 game due to quad bruise
    • Missed 1 game due to team-imposed suspension
  • 2018: 8 games played, 133 carries, 26 Recs, 159 total touches
    • Missed 2 games due to Grade 2 hamstring strain
    • Missed 4 games due to re-injuring same hamstring in return from injury
    • Missed 1 game due to knee/ankle injuries
    • Missed 1 game due to league suspension for unsportsmanlike conduct
  • 2019: 15 games played, 265 carries, 76 Recs, 341 total touches
    • Missed 1 game due to illness
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Fournette has been a disappointment up until this year in his career, with many fearing he was going to continue being injury prone and would never complete a full season. Well, he pretty much proved that wrong this year with only missing 1 game due to having the flu, and he managed to get heavily involved in the passing game and also increased his rushing efficiency this season as well. He also had 5 fewer TDs than any other RB in the top 10 in Half PPR this season yet still finished 9th. Just imagine what could be in store if he can stay injury free and that offense improves? That said, I’m reluctant to place him higher due to that injury risk always being in the back of my mind, and also the fact that I don’t see this offense improving enough to truly propel him to the top. Pay attention to what they do with that line though; if they can fix it up enough, it might be possible Fournette could carry that offense himself.

Tier 4

The last lucky few to have the honor of being called RB1s, these guys have the potential to either be RB1s in the league for a long time or could easily fall out of relevance as fast as they got here. Most of these RBs have only 1 real season of fantasy relevance under their belt, and also have the same questions Tier 3 guys had surrounding them if not more. Like I said though, these guys have a good shot at being top tier RBs, they just need to dispel some of the uncertainty that’s around them.

10. Josh Jacobs, Oakland Raiders

2019 Stats
  • 13 Games, 181.6 fantasy points, 14.0 PPG, -79.3 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,150 Rush yds/7 Rush TDs/242 carries/4.8 yds per carry/683 YAContact
  • Receiving: 166 Rec yds/0 Rec TDs/20 Recs/27 targets/8.3 yds per rec/183 YACatch
  • Notes: About as much as you can ask for from a rookie RB that isn’t named Saquon Barkley or Ezekiel Elliot. Jacobs is phenomenal at running the ball and his high Yds Per Carry stats show it. He is spotty with TDs though, as he had 2 TDs in 3 different games this season, leaving 1 to split between the other 10 games he played. Also needs work on the receiving game as well, but has the tools to do well there. My big worry is that as long as Waller and Carr remain a duo, Carr will prefer to find Waller over any of his RBs on the check-down. If Jacobs can become a reliable target for Carr or any Raiders QB in the future though, his value could skyrocket massively.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 21 years old
  • 1 season played, 242 carries, 20 Recs, 262 total touches
  • 2019: 13 games played, 242 carries, 20 Recs, 262 total touches
    • Missed 3 games due to a fractured shoulder
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Jacobs has done well in his rookie season, certainly worthy of being the 1.01 in 2019 rookie drafts and has already become a top asset in dynasty leagues. I had to place him in Tier 4 though because I’m not sure exactly where this offense stands, and also because of his inconsistent production this season. His floor has shown to be very low on that offense, but his ceiling is also quite high as well. If the overall offense can improve to be better, Jacobs has a shot of moving into Tier 3. We’ll also have to keep an eye out to see if his body can handle a full workload, splitting the workload at Alabama may have kept him fresh for the NFL but it may have been to help keep him injury free as well.

11. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

2019 Stats
  • 16 Games, 290.3 fantasy points, 18.1 PPG, +29.4 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 1,084 Rush yds/16 Rush TDs/236 carries/4.6 yds per carry/515 YAContact
  • Receiving: 474 Rec yds/3 Rec TDs/49 Recs/68 targets/9.7 yds per rec/433 YACatch
  • Notes: Aaron Jones had a knack for finding the end zone this season, getting the Todd Gurley red zone treatment from head coach Matt LeFleur. 19 total TDs on the season is prime for regression, although if Jones keeps getting used as a red zone weapon like he has been this year, he has a good chance at keeping his TD numbers high. A big change from previous years for Jones is his rushing efficiency, as he dropped from a 5.5 Yds Per Carry average the last two years to 4.6 this season. One big factor in this is the YBC Per Carry number going from 3.5 in 2018 to 2.4 in 2019. This is likely due to less designed runs for Jones specifically now that he’s the main RB of the offense and also a regression on part of the O-Line. However, Jones also set a career high in Yds Per Rec and was one of the only RBs in the league to have a positive Yds Before Catch, signifying that the Packers used him in deeper routes down the field this year to help with their receiving corps woes.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 25 years old
  • 3 seasons played, 450 carries, 84 Recs, 534 total touches
  • 2017: 12 games played, 81 carries, 9 Recs, 90 total touches
    • Missed 4 games due to MCL Sprain
  • 2018: 12 games played, 133 carries, 26 Recs, 159 total touches
    • Missed 2 games at end of season for MCL Sprain
    • Missed 2 games due to league suspension for substance abuse policy
  • 2019: 16 games played, 236 carries, 49 Recs, 285 total touches
Reasoning For Ranking
  • This may be one of my more controversial placements as some people think his scoring success this year is sustainable. That is a possibility, but I’m just not gonna be sold that he’s going to going to score anywhere close to 19 TDs next season. Combine that with the fact that he’s had 2 MCL injuries so far in his career and the fact that Rodgers isn’t going to be around forever, and I can’t really place him as a top tier RB with the rest of his statistics. He should be a top 10 RB for the next two years or so, but once Rodgers truly starts falling off, Jones won’t be having the same numbers he does now.

12. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles

2019 Stats
  • 16 Games, 193.7 fantasy points, 12.1 PPG, -67.2 total pt difference from the average RB1
  • Rushing: 818 Rush yds/3 Rush TDs/179 carries/4.6 yds per carry/373 YAContact
  • Receiving: 509 Rec yds/3 Rec TDs/50 Recs/63 targets/10.2 yds per rec/420 YACatch
  • Notes: After having to share running duties with Jordan Howard during the first half of the season, Sanders caught fire when he got a chance to be the main RB on the Philly committee. He was able to maintain his Yds Per Carry average while also stepping up to be a large factor in the passing game, especially on deeper routes. Of any RB on this list, Sanders had the most YBCatch Per Rec with 1.8. Will this be different if Philly adds more receiving help over the offseason? Possibly, but seeing how effective Sanders was in the passing game this season, they may still opt to keep him running deep routes to take advantage of his skillset. Definitely keep an eye out for his TD numbers to increase as well if they don’t bring back Howard this offseason.
Career Usage/Durability Stats
  • Age: 22 years old
  • 1 season played, 179 carries, 50 Recs, 229 total touches
  • 2019: 16 games played, 179 carries, 50 Recs, 229 total touches
Reasoning For Ranking
  • Sanders has looked like an extremely skilled and versatile back already in Philly, and he is their most talented RB since Shady was in town in my estimation. The O-Line in Philly is second to none right now, and if they can continue their dominance, Sanders has a real chance to be a top tier RB if he becomes their bellcow. That is a big if though, as Philly has used the RBBC philosophy massively since Doug came to town, and that is the main reason I don’t have Sanders higher. Everything you could ask for is there except for the guaranteed volume: good offense, good young QB, great skills, no injury history. But it is the volume that truly makes RB1s what they are, so if he gets that, look out. He might just be a top tier RB sooner rather than later.

A few notable snubs that didn’t make this list that I can see people asking about are Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and Le’Veon Bell. For me, Gurley has lost a lot of efficiency after the emergence of his knee issues and doesn’t look like the same player at all to me, he’s been reliant on TD scoring this season to keep his value afloat and I can’t see him sustaining his production much longer. Gordon simply has too much up in the air about his situation for me to place him here and he’s also getting up there in age. Finally, Bell is currently on an offense orchestrated by Adam Gase, and Bell also has a lot of mileage on him from his time in Pittsburgh. However, if he does somehow get traded somewhere this offseason, I would consider placing him on this list if it is a good destination for him.
Well, that’s it for my first big post on this subreddit. I hope you guys find this helpful, I know after sitting down and doing this, it helped me re-adjust my biases and confirm some of the ones that I had. Please share your top RBs with me as well and also point out any inconsistencies in my methods or information, I’m here to become a better fantasy football player like the rest of you and always am looking for new information to consider to gain that edge over everyone else. I’ll likely be doing one of these for WRs, TEs, and QBs as well, it’ll just take some time to do. Let me know any feedback you guys have, I love this community and really want to contribute to it as much as it has helped me out.
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