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[SERIOUS DISCUSSION] If you had to choose RO16 exit another year in the UCL or seriously compete for the Europa League what would it be?

SINCE REACHING THE FINALS IN 2005/06, We have managed to make it beyond the Round of 16 just 3 times in 10 attempts. Now I love Arsenal, but I'm being as realistic as I can be. Current trends have us probably making it out of the group stages but no further, maybe quarter-finals at best.
Is the Europa League the best of the best in Europe? No. But is Arsenal a team which is currently among the best of the best? Feelings and bias aside, quite simply: no. Football is cyclical. Perhaps not as cyclical as some North American sports (due to the draft system), but teams and leagues dominate in phases. Will Spain's dominance in Europe last forever? No. Will Italian teams eventually make a resurgance on a European scale? Yes. Will English teams bounce back and have their moment in the future? For sure. Will Arsenal FC be back at their best sometime soon? 100%!
 
Why do I say this? Well maybe we are where we are for now and the future will hold something better. But maybe for now perhaps we should embrace the Europea League and take it seriously.  
If you click this link and take a look at our Champions League campaign for the 2005/06 season when we lost to Barcelona in the finals, what do you see? You see that we conceded a total of 2 goals INCLUDING the group stages leading up to the final. 2 GOALS CONCEDED ALL CAMPAIGN. Can you imagine us even keeping Bayern to 2 goals in a single leg nowadays? Only reason we even allowed two goals in the final was Lehmann's red card and fucking Almunia in goal afterwards. https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2005/clubs/club=52280/matches/index.html
 
Gun to your head, you heave to choose, if it's practically guaranteed (which it is) we will not progress beyond the quarter-finals of the CL, would you rather watch us play the group stages, RO16 and quarter-finals of the Champions League or play the Europea League and take it seriously and try to win it?
 
Season Stage Reached
2015/16 Round of 16
2014/15 Round of 16
2013/14 Round of 16
2012/13 Round of 16
2011/12 Round of 16
2010/11 Round of 16
2009/10 Quarter Finals
2008/09 Semi Finals
2007/08 Quarter Finals
2006/07 Round of 16
 
THE EMOTIONAL SIDE: Yes, obviously in the Champions League anything can happen. Magic of the cup and all that. Some of my favorite memories of Arsenal in recent years are beating Barcelona at their peak 2-1, beating Real Madrid at the Bernabeau, (almost) coming back against Milan 3-0.. magical moments that the CL provides. But at this stage, would you pick the real possibility of Europea League glory or guaranteed disappointment of the CL?  
I leave you with a stroll poll and encourage comments and criticism on my views.
http://www.strawpoll.me/12985784
sources: http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2017/clubs/club=52280/history/index.html https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2005/clubs/club=52280/matches/index.html
submitted by CanadianGooner to Gunners

[OC] How Champions League, World Cup and invidual awards influence Ballon d'Or favourites. Collected bookmakers odds in 11 most important points of the year (including every knockout round). Griezmann was not even listed to bet after 1/16 of World Cup, now he is third favourite.

Betting on Ballon d'Or winner is one of my favourite long time bet each year, it was pretty easy last years to earn a lot of money that way when you stacked your odds on Cristiano / Messi. This year I put some heavy stack on Cristiano Ronaldo and then tracked how odds changed between the most important part of the year: CL knockouts and World Cup. Odds showed are average from SkyBet, 888 and Unibet. For example odd 1 : 4 means that for 1 dollar stacked you get 4 dollars back. ↑ means that odds are rising, ↓ means that odds are falling. Players that I included into brackets are current top 10 favourites and in this [OC] I want to show you how odds for each player moved through the year.
________________________________________________________________________
First odds for the season:
At the start of the year Lionel Messi and Neymar were two main favourites to win Ballon D'Or. Both of them had amazing first part of the season and started new year in form (Neymar had 7 goals in 3 games). Cristiano had terrible winter so a lot of people thought that he is past it.
18/01/2018 Odds:
Lionel Messi 1 : 1.64
Neymar 1 : 2.25
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 4
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 15
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 26
Luka Modrić 1 : 251
Antoine Griezmann not listed
Eden Hazard not listed
Harry Kane not listed
Mohamed Salah not listed
________________________________________________________________________
CL influence:
At April after CL quarterfinals bookies thought (and who wouldn't) that there are only two people that might win the Ballon d'Or: Cristiano Ronaldo and Leo Messi. Cristiano hit amazing form in the league and then showed in CL knockouts. Only player other than Cristiano who gained a lot from Champions League was Mohamed Salah. His odds between QF and Final moved from 1 : 12 to 1 : 2.75.
________________________________________________________________________
Odds post - Champions League Quarterfinals
11/04/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 2 ( ↓ 2)
Lionel Messi 1 : 3 ( ↑ 1.36)
Mohamed Salah 1 : 12 (new)
Neymar 1 : 13 ( ↑ 10.75)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 16 ( ↓ 10)
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 21 ( ↑ 6)
Luka Modrić 1 : 251
Eden Hazard not listed
Harry Kane not listed
Antoine Griezmann not listed
Odds post - Champions League Semifinals
25/04/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 2
Mohamed Salah 1 : 3 ( ↓ 9)
Lionel Messi 1 : 3.5 (↑ 0.5)
Neymar 1 : 13
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 16
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 21
Harry Kane 1 : 51 (new)
Eden Hazard 1 : 101 (new)
Luka Modrić 1 : 251
Antoine Griezmann not listed
Odds post - Champions League Final
27/05/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 2
Mohamed Salah 1 : 2.75 ( ↓ 0.25)
Lionel Messi 1 : 4 (↑ 0.5)
Neymar 1 : 16 (↑ 3)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 21 (↑ 5)
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 31 (↑ 10)
Harry Kane 1 : 51
Eden Hazard 1 : 101
Luka Modrić 1 : 251
Antoine Griezmann not listed
________________________________________________________________________
World Cup influence
Before the World Cups odds for Salah raised heavily, many people predicted Egypt to not qualify from the groupstage and Salah's injury didn't help. The one who raised a lot was Neymar because people thought that Brazil might win the World Cup. After World Cup groupstage and 1/16 the one that earned the most was Luka Modrić. In span of 2 weeks you would earn 230 dollars less than before. After quarterfinals we seen rise of couple of players: Luka Modrić, Harry Kane (he was 3rd favourite after QF) , De Bruyne and Hazard and French players: Mbappe and Griezmann (he showed on the chart for the first time with 1 : 32). Semifinals and finals shifted that ranking even more moving Mbappe and Griezmann as 3rd and 4th favourite.
________________________________________________________________________
Odds pre - World Cup groupstage
14/06/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.5 ( ↓ 0.5)
Mohamed Salah 1 : 6 ( ↑ 3.25)
Lionel Messi 1 : 7 (↑ 3)
Neymar 1 : 10 (↓ 6)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 21
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 31
Harry Kane 1 : 51
Eden Hazard 1 : 101
Luka Modrić 1 : 251
Antoine Griezmann not listed
Odds post - World Cup groupstage
28/06/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.2 ( ↓ 0.3)
Lionel Messi 1 : 6 ( ↓ 1)
Neymar 1 : 10
Mohamed Salah 1 : 12 (↑ 6)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 21
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 31
Harry Kane 1 : 51
Luka Modrić 1 : 51 ( ↓ 200)
Eden Hazard 1 : 101
Antoine Griezmann not listed
Odds post - World Cup 1/16
03/07/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.25 ( ↑ 0.05)
Lionel Messi 1 : 6
Neymar 1 : 10
Mohamed Salah 1 : 17 (↑ 5)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 21
Luka Modrić 1 : 21 ( ↓ 30)
Harry Kane 1 : 31 ( ↓ 20)
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 31
Eden Hazard 1 : 41 ( ↓ 60)
Antoine Griezmann not listed
Odds post - World Cup Quarterfinals
07/07/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.25
Lionel Messi 1 : 9 ( ↑ 3 )
Harry Kane 1 : 11 ( ↓ 20)
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 17 (↓ 14)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 17 ( ↓ 4)
Luka Modrić 1 : 17 ( ↓ 4)
Mohamed Salah 1 : 21 ( ↑ 4)
Neymar 1 : 21 ( ↑ 11)
Eden Hazard 1 : 21 ( ↓ 20)
Antoine Griezmann 1 : 32 (new)
Odds post - World Cup Semifinals
12/07/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.25
Luka Modrić 1 : 5 ( ↓ 12)
Antoine Griezmann 1 : 6 ( ↓ 26)
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 11 (↓ 6)
Lionel Messi 1 : 13 ( ↑ 4)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 17
Mohamed Salah 1 : 26 ( ↑ 5)
Neymar 1 : 26 ( ↑ 5)
Eden Hazard 1 : 26 ( ↑ 5)
Harry Kane 1 : 26 ( ↑ 15)
Odds post - World Cup Finals
12/07/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.25
Luka Modrić 1 : 5
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 6 ( ↓ 5)
Antoine Griezmann 1 : 8 (↑ 2)
Lionel Messi 1 : 16 ( ↑ 3)
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 21 ( ↑ 4)
Mohamed Salah 1 : 21 ( ↓ 5)
Eden Hazard 1 : 21 ( ↓ 5)
Neymar 1 : 34 ( ↑ 13)
Harry Kane 1 : 34 ( ↑ 8)
________________________________________________________________________
UEFA awards and current odds
Luka Modrić (winning UEFA Best Player) and Antoine Griezmann (being into top 3) moved the odds even more. Now they are close to Cristiano Ronaldo and odds should be moving into their direction even more till the end of the year.
________________________________________________________________________
Odds now
05/09/2018 Odds:
Cristiano Ronaldo 1 : 1.45 ( ↑ 0.20)
Luka Modrić 1 : 3 ( ↓ 1.5)
Antoine Griezmann 1 : 4.5 ( ↓ 3.5)
Kylian Mbappe 1 : 13 (↑ 7)
Lionel Messi 1 : 17 ( ↑ 1)
Mohamed Salah 1 : 21
Kevin De Bruyne 1 : 26 (↑ 5)
Eden Hazard 1 : 34 ( ↑ 13)
Neymar 1 : 34
Harry Kane 1 : 34

Conclusions (my opinion):
- In the World Cup year domestic achievements means nothing in terms of Ballon d'Or
- In the World Cup year Champions League can move you heavily into the top if you score a lot of goals in underdog team
- Other invidual awards are influencing Ballon d'Or odds
- Ballon d'or is nothing more than popularity and recency biased award (Harry Kane was 3rd favourite after WC QFs, Griezmann moved from not listed to top 3 in span of 20 days, Modrić was on odds 1 : 251 before the World Cup, now it's 1 : 3).
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submitted by kazcmot to soccer

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