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2021 in Preview - a look at the upcoming year on the NA Server

Around this time last year around I wrote a preview for 2020 and while it did have some issues I only realized lateron, many people found it to be helpful. So here we go again. We're nearing the end of 2020 and while that year has been... interesting to say the least, it's time for another preview nontheless. This is all based on our Clairvoyance EX, that is, based on how NA pretty much follows JP just two years behind.
There's a few caveats to go here and before I go to a month-by-month rundown of next year. I feel like I should point out what to expect, in general, from our Clairvoyance - and what not to. As a baseline, you can expect all major events, servant releases, welfares and so on that JP had in 2019 in 2021 on NA in roughly the same order and timeframe. As in, if a major event happened on JP in April 2019, it will, with a high amount of certainty, happen in April 2021 on NA.
However, we do not follow JP to the letter on NA. For one, there's Commemoration Campaigns. Commemoration Campaigns, as the name implies, commemorate things. That means, they're tied to real-life happenings. Things like Expos, Anime releases or similar things. That, of course, means, that they cannot happen in the same way, just two years later. Things like Anime releases are usually held on NA when the anime releases there. KYOMAFS or FGO THE STAGE Campaigns don't apply to NA in the first place. Things like this.
So, as a baseline, whenever a Campaign or Event commemorates something, do necessarily not expect it on NA two years later. Sometimes we get these campaigns repackaged as another thing. Sometimes we get them way earlier, like with the Babylonia release campaigns that happened late 2019 and early 2020, near-simultaneously with JP on NA. Sometimes we don't see them at all. Our Clairvoyance doesn't apply here.
Finally, as a warning, sometimes events happen in slightly different timeslots. The most prominent example of this would be NAs anniversary, which is a month earlier than JPs. So the anniversary events are also a month earlier. This has ramifications during that time for other events as well, which I will try to predict, but take this with a hefty amount of salt. It's uncertain how DW will handle things. Moreover, sometimes DW also just likes to switch things around. Prominent examples of this during 2020 were the Murder at the KOGETSUKAN event, which happened later to sync up with real-life moonphases (yes, really) and the Interlude Campaign VII, which happened later than expected for no reason I know of. It just did.
So, with this out of the way, one last thing remains: What am I doing here? The following: I will not list every single rateup here, duh. Things like the event compendium, grandorder.wiki or this upcoming banner spreadsheet take care of that. What I will focus on os major events, welfares, new releases and "last rateups". With last rateups I refer to limited SSR servants that, as of right now, have not received another rateup on JP after their mentioned ones. This will, of course, change, over time. JP still progresses and many servants will see new banners throughout 2021 as well, including some that might have had their "last rateup". But I will point point out last rateups of limited servants as known of at the time of writing.
So. Let's go.

January

NA will start the year with the New Years Campaign and GSSR and the Enma-Tei Event, together with the release of the delightful Tongue-Cut Sparrow Benienma and with the SSR Assassin Version of Li-Shuwen. Be aware, thie event will require you to have cleared S I N, the third Lostbelt, to participate. So if you haven't done so until then, you really should get going.
Traditionally, the New Years Banner has lots of widely liked servants and this year is no exception. Besides Mainstays like Gilgamesh, Tamamo and Scathach, this is also the last known rateup so far (see above) for all of Hokusai and Caster Nero. While the latter is part of a 2022 Campaign, that one has an unreasonable amount of rateups so your chances to get CasNero there are marginal at best. If you want the Foreigner or Umu in a swimsuit, you better get them now, otherwise your chances look grim until JP puts them on rateup again.
January will also see the Rerun of the Prisma Codes Event and your last chance of getting Chloe (or delicious free 5 RP). The event also releases another Magical Girl (as if we didn't have a ton already) in Miyu Edelfelt, a support Caster that, to this date, hasn't seen another rateup banner, despite being limited. Much like Asagami Fujino had her one and only rateup in 2020, you need to be sure to get Miyu now if you want her, otherwise you run out of options immediatly.
Besides that, January had a lot of Campaigns that we likely won't see on NA - see my caveat about commemoration campaigns above. We might see some of them, if only to fill the time, but the past has shown that often we will not. This includes an FGO THE STAGE banner, the WinFes Campaign and the Heavens Feel Banner that already happened on NA in the past.

February

February will start traditionally with the Valentines Event, this time featuring Murasaki Shikibou and her storyline of cursed books. The banner features a hefty amount of female servants, all on rateup together with Shikibou herself, with Semiramis being the only exception, being granted a rateup banner just for herself. This year, the Valentines scenes will be voiced, so rejoice, masters, for you can hear your servants presenting you with their gifts for the first time! Interestingly enough, the only other rateup Murasaki had outside of her release campaign during the upcoming Valentines was a KYOMAF campaign in September 2019 on JP. As elaborated above, there's a good chance we don't see that on NA. It might happen, in fact, it recently has happened, but that was the first time and we cannot be sure about this one way or another. That said: If you want Murasaki, better get her now, if only for peace of mind.
Later down the month NA will see a new set of Strengthenings in the Part X Campaign, including Strengthenings for Semiramis, Passionlip, Edison, Beowulf, Lancer Li, Kiara and Hans Christian Andersen. Shorty following that will be CCC SE.RA.PH Rerun and our second meeting with the delightful devilish Kouhai BB! SE.RA.PH is, canonically, a main story chapter - it's part of Epic of Remnant and as such, a major part of the games storyline.
It's a bit weird how they implemented it as an event, but they've since rectified that and established it as a Main Interlude on JP. Still, until that happens on NA, more than another year will pass, so better get BB now and, honestly, read through the quite entertaining story. Besides a rateup of Meltlilith, the event also features another Sakuraface in the release of Kingprotea, the most gigantic part of the Sakura Five. Honestly, her battle sprite is ridiculously big and puts even Ivan to shame. And she's sitting down.

March

Early in March Moriarty will get his very own event!. Contrary to Murder at the KOGETSUKAN, this one is a full-fledged event, so Moriarty will be delighted to one-up his eternal nemesis, no doubt. Together with the event, the annual Chaldea Boys Collection Banner should happen. So in case you tend to collect Husbandos moreso than Waifus, this is for you to look forward to! It's also Moriartys last known rateup so far.
Worth mentioning, while this isn't a banner, the Main Quest Clear Aid Campaign should also happen in March. If you ever wondered why the fandom wiki has guaranteed rewards for story missions that you never got on NA, this is the reason: It's a system not implemented yet. It will be. Every story mission will from the on provide you with a guaranteed material drop. Since this is applied retroactively, Masters who have cleared all the story chapters so far will receive a huge amount of materials for free at once, so that's nice.
Edit: Turns out, that came early for NA a few days after writing this post. This goes to show our imprecise clairvoyance to a degree. For QoL updates, this is even more true than otherwise.
March will also see another set of interludes, with the 8th Interlude Campaign, including new stories for Semiramis, Ngihtingale, Hijikata Toshizo, Yagyu Munenori, Consort Yu and Hessian Lobo.
And, as a final treat in a pretty filled up month, the Kokugawa Kaiten Meikyu - Ooku Event should come at the end of March and with it, the long awaited Kama. Besides being possibly the best singletarget Assassin in the game besides maybe Jack, she's also the games prime Alter Ego killer. An all around strong servant and gameplaywise, one of the strongest choices of the year. The event is also a relevant story chapter, much like CCC SE.RA.PH, and it's dubbed "Lostbelt 3.5". So since the next main story chapter is quite far out, this one's there to bridge the gap.

April

The Ooku event will most likely last well into April, yet the month itself also has a lot to offer. Early in April, the 16M Downloads Campaign together with MHXA as a featured servant should take place. Besides the usual amount of goodies and a 1/4 AP Main Quest Campaign up until LB2, Masters will receive 10 SQ per 10 completed Interludes as permanent extra Master Missions in the same vein that we already have the 10 SQ per 10 Strengthenings.
After the freebies (or alongside them, possibly), we will see the GUDAGUDA Rerun. If you haven't gotten the lovely pair of Ryouma and Oryou already, here's your chance! A solid singletarget Rider that, while not rivaling Kintoki, isn't a bad choice at all. The banner features Okita Alter, Hijikata Toshiza and the limited 3* Okada Izou.
And if that wasn't enough for you already or you're desperate for more welfares, rejoice, since there's more to come! Lady Reines Case Files will happen shortly after and with it, we'll be getting one of the most anticipated welfares of the year: Gray. Not only is she an interesting variant of the Saberface, she's also extremely competent at what she does. Decent AoE Assassins are few and far between and between her being NP5 for free and having a 20% battery to boot, she'll be the go-to Assassin Waveclearer for many masters. Look forward to her, she's really strong.
Oh and if Grey isn't enough for you, there's a Waver rateup right before the event and tehe event Summoning Campaign comes with the releases of Reines herself and Astraea. Now that's a great month if I've ever seen one. Keep in mind: Reines will only really begin to shine once she receives her Strengthening in 2022, which also features a rateup shortly after, so it's up to you if you want her now already.

May

With all the action packed into the previous months, May will offer some respite for masters on the brink of burning out and a well-deserved rest before summer will be upon us. If you still need to clear things, there's a 1/4 AP Campaign for the Epic of Remnant Chapters and a 1/2 AP event for all Free Quests during May, but if you've done everything already, you're looking forward for some slow burn for the month.
Besides the (usually) annual Class Based Summoning early in the month and Hunting Quests late in it, the only actual event in the fifth month of the year will be "A Study in the Dubious Meiho-sou" and that mirros Murder at the KOGETSUKAN, so it's a story-focused event without much farming going on. The summoning Campaign features JAlter, Tristant and Salieri.
If you've never played on JP but have listened about JP players talking about "things slowing down", this is part of what they refer to. May will be very calm and you should mentally prepare for that to not be surprised when it happens.

June

June is when things get interesting from a scheduling point of view. As I've mentioned before, NAs anniversary is a month earlier than JPs, so we should see it at the end of June or early July instead of at the end of July into early August. So we might need to accomodate for it in this month and that might see anothe
As such, it might very well be that the 9th Interlude Campaign, featuring Arthur, Osakabehime, Assassin Li, MHXA, Raikou, Emiya Alter and Wu, might or might not happen in early June. Lots of Skill upgrades in it, so it would be kind of sad.
Because, also in June, the 4th Lostbelt will drop. And that definitely will happen before anniversary. It's been a while since LB3 at that point, hasn't it. About time the main story continues, eh? Thinking, as of me writing this, shortly before the arrival of S I N on NA, this is like 8 months out? That's quite a long time, even if Kamas event is kinda like LB 3.5. In any case, together with LB4, Arjuna Alter will appear and boy will he be fun. He's like Spartacus on steroids and if you want to roll for just one servant based on gameplay alone, Godjuna is probably the one you want. He's amazingly strong in both his farming performance, as in his singletarget Buster Crits and while he comes with the usual caveats of being a Berserker, he's just extremely potent. Oh and this is, so far, his first and final rateup. If you want him, plan ahead and get him then.
But Junao isn't the only new servant. LB4 comes with a plethora of new servants and while he might be the most popular one, the others most definitely deserve mentioning: Ganesha, the only Non-BB Mooncancer so far E: I forgot about Summer Kiara!, Lakshmibai, the unluckiest Jeanneface in existence and William Tell a new 3*, are all unlimited, but Ashwatthama and the quite powerful Arts Support Asclepius are both storylocked, so your best chance of getting them is probably now. And since the latter two are on the same banner as Arjuna Alter... I mean you're not going to be disappointed in your rolls here, right?
JP also had the 17M DL Campaign in June though that's another clear candidate to be moved around to later for anniversary. In any case it features Nero Bride for the first - and the last - time in ages. She'll get a Strengthening, possibly together with the Anniversary, which makes her a prime Arts Looping support until Castoria shows up in 2022 and, as mentioned, it's her last known rateup, so if you want her, you have to get her now.
And, as mentioned, either in late June or in early July, the 4th anniversary event will take place and, as usual, bring a huge lot of goodies with it. Besids tons of free quartz for various reasons it comes with the Release of Rider Da Vinci Lily and a plethora of new 1-2*s. Jason, Paris, Gareth, Bartholomew Roberts, Charlotte Corday, Salome and, most notably, Chen Gong, who will feature in lots of future farming setups, I'm sure. These new bronze servants will be availabe in the Friend Gacha and you will have no issue getting them soon. They're not even 3*s, so geting them to NP5 is trivial, no need to worry about it.
For many people, the most important feautre of the 4th anniversary campaigns will be the changes to the summoning system. From then on, Masters will get a free 11th roll for every 10 rolls on one banner. Regardless if you're doing the rolls one by one or in a batch of 10, the 10th roll will come with a free additional roll on top of it. Furthermore, the SSR single rateup chance will be changed from 0.7% to 0.8%. The overall SSR rate per roll remains at 1%, but the chance to get spooked during single rateup rolls is reduced from 0.3 to 0.2%, essentially making it more likely to get the servant you want instead of one from the general pool.
In JP, Strenghtening Quests Part IX happened in conjunction together with the anniversary, so expect that here as well. Besides the aforementioned Strengthening to Bride, it also includes Altera, adds a Battery to Romulus, further Strengthenings to Medusa Lily, Gorgon, Iskander and Alexander, Medea Lily and Kotarou and Boudica, Martha, Maid Alter and Gawain. I'm sure there's something for everyone here.

July

Depending on how our June went, we might see a few events and campaigns from then in July instead. As mentioned, the 9th Interlude Campaign and the 17M Downloads Campaign might happen early this month instead. But, depending on schedule, July will see 2 events: 2019s GUDAGUDA and the summer rerun.
GUDAGUDA Final Honnoji will be this years GUDA event and with it, an amazingly strong and fun welfare will be given to masters: Nagao Kagetora. Seriously, her animations and voice lines are some of the best in game and the way her seeming enthusiasm accompanies everything she does is very enjoyable, at least to me. She's an Arts Singletarget Lancer and a master in her role, I've enjoyed playing with her tremendously.
Besides Kagetora, the event also features the releases of Demon King Nobunaga and the limited 3* Berserker Mori Nagayoshi, together in a summoning campaign with Summer Nobu as the featured 4*. All these will feature again a year later in the events rerun, so if you're not in a hurry, you can roll for them then.
Also in July (or maybe in early August, depending on how the schedule might change around annversary), Summer Jeannes Summer Event Rerun will happen, with the usual rateups that we know from her original run. If you haven't gotten her with the original event, this is your last chance to get a very useful Berserker welfare and if you've gotten her and all the costumes already, this rerun has a whooping 11 RP for you, so that's definitely something to look forward to!
This is your last chance (bar the already mentioned Swimsuit Campaign, the biggest bait banner ever) to roll for Summer Jeanne, Summer Ushiwakamaru, Summer Medb and MHXX and has also, so far, been the last rateup for Edmont Dantes, so have an eye out for them then.

August

Since anniversary will have happened at late June / early July, August will, most likely, be a calmer month for NA again. While we might see the Summer rerun in early August instead of in July, there's not much else happening here, but the actual summer event, Las Vegas Official Bout, featuring the lovely and very capabale Saber Hokusai as welfare. Another strong addition to every Masters roster, this Arts Singletarget Servant comes with a plethora of string skills and is, for the most part, a straight upgrade to the other ST Saber welfare so far, Brave Liz. Sorry Eli. Newer Master should definitely get her, just as Kagetora is a strong ST Lancer, Hokusai is a just as strong ST Saber.
Besides that, Masters will see the first Merlin rateup in ages during the Summer Event and the newly released Ruler Artoria, Lancer Melt, the long awaited Swimsuit Okita, Berserker Musashi, Archer Okasabehime and Rider Carmilla. Gameplaywise, especially Lambda and Berserker Musashi are the standouts here, but we all know that nobody rolls on swimsuit servants for gameplay value, right?
Rolling aside, Las Vegas is an excellent opportunity to stack up on large amount of QP and just by playing the event, Masters will easily gain 300M QP or more, without special grind. Swimsuits, QP, Gambling, a strong welfare... what's not to love about this event?

September

Remember when I mentioned that 2020s schedule will be slower than you're used to? September will be another relatively slow month but, as is customary, the one event that does take place will be guaranteed to take up a lot of your attention, but first things first. JP started September with the 10th Interlude Campaign that includes Interludes for Ishtar, Tesla and Enkidu (who all get NP or Skill upgrades with them) and Jack, Amakusa Shirou and Parvati (for whom you'll just see SQ).
Also in September, another Class-based Summoning Campaign should hit Masters, so if you're moreso looking for a whole plethora of different options from one class than for a specific servant, consider giving that a try?
And, as promised, September will feature the recurring Autumn Lottery: Battle in New York Part II, also called IshtarFest because, well, you'll see. :) Obviously at this point you should have your setups ready for heavy grinding, as with every lottery. This years features Snake Jewels, Horeshoes, Proofs and Chains as Materials. Not quite Dust and Bones but eh, can't always have those, right? Obviously, Gilgamesh is on rateup there, because of course he is.
Finally, September did see a KYOMAF Campaign. Now, in the past, Kyomafs weren't a thing on NA because they're neither relevant, nor in the correct time, after all, the according exhibit had happened 2 years earlier. However, in 2020, we did see the Kyomaf campaign on NA rebranded as Shuten Douji Summoning Campaign. So... there's precedence. But who knows if it happens or not, we can't really give any proper prediciton here.

October

For October I need to start with a Disclaimer about the Babylonia Commemoration Campaigns. From October 2019 on, JP had a line of Commemoration Campaigns featuring the Babylonia Anime because that was when it first released. As I've already mentioned in the beginning, Commemoration Campaigns are difficult for NA to predict and these especially so, since they already happened. NA had them in 2019 and 2020 as well, just a very short time after JP had them and very out of schedule.
As such, I believe it's extremely unlikely that we see a repeat of them. However, we might see certain aspects of them transferred to a different event, to Thanksgiving or anything else. This is not really a thing to predict as we have no idea how DW might handle them. As such, I will list the Campaigns here, just for completeness sake, but just once and not refer to them again in the months after. Babylonia I, Babylonia II. The third and fourth Campaign were in early 2020 for JP.
In any case, the thing we'll definitely see is the Halloween Rerun, which, sadly, is the last Halloween Event so far. With no new Halloween themed event either in 2019 or in 2020 on JP, Halloween simply has ended in Chaldea with this rerun, so savor it while it lasts. It's the second and last chance to get Caster Shuten of course and also features the last rateup for Lancer Ibaraki so far.
As a second event during October (or possibly during very early November), Saber Wars II will happen. While not a Halloween Event, it stands very well on it's own two legs and comes with two new limited servants, Space Ishtar and Calamity Jane. Space Ishtar is another servant with three completely different forms for each of her ascensions, much lika Demon Nobu, and will be the Queen of Castoria Looping once she releases in 2022. On her own right, she's a bit like Jeanne just as an AoE Servant, in that, she's always useful with her 50% battery and her NP color-changing shenanigans, she will fit into any Masters roster well, but she'll rarely be the single best choice for anything. With Castoria however, she's a go-to servant for essentially anything the game throws at you and if you plan on going down the Castoria hole in 2022, gettins SIshtar here is most definitely your best bet.
As of the time of this writing, neither SIshtar nor Calamity Jane had another banner, but it's fully expected to see the Saber Wars II Rerun on JP in the near future, as it's still outstanding. Hard to predict, of course, as are all things JP, but it might very well happen. MHXA also has a Banner during SW2 and that has been her last rateup so far just the same. So if you're into Sith Lords with a thing for earthly sweets, better prepare your Quartz! And if you'd like her original Version, the Prerelease Campaign is so far the last time MHX herself is on rateup.

November

We're nearing the end of the year already and besides SW2 that will go well into November, Christmas will soon be upon us. But first, it's time for the 18M Downloads Campaign and Skadis second ever showing. If you missed her during 3rd anniversary, here's your next chance in getting the Queen of Snow and Ice and yes, you need to wait that long for her to come up again. It'll be interesting to see how many people will try to get their Skadi here on NA with our Clairvoyance telling us about Castoria the year after, guess we'll have to wait and see. Besides Skadi, November will also bring another iteration of Hunting Quests.
Now, famously, JP did skip the Christmas rerun in 2019. As such, it's likely that NA doesn't see a second iteration of Quetzmas either. Instead, Christmas itself comes early this year and the End of November will see Nightingales Christmas Carol featuring, of course, Santa Nightingale as a welfare. A pretty decent mixture of support, sustain and AoE Archer, she comes with an Arsenal of Carpet Bombs as NP and an Ishtar-like Crit-Charisma. Together with the Event, Saber Astolfo sees the light of day and if you've ever dreamed of Astolfo in a Bunny Costume wielding a chain-sword, well, here's your chance!
As usual, of course, the Christmas Event is the second lottery of the year and even if it's early for real Christmas, the presents in the FGO version are definitely worth grinding for. Lanterns, Octuplets, Pages and Fangs, together with a Ticket in each box that can be exchanged for either a Claw, a Phoenic Feather or a Ring of Giant means happy grinding indeed. As usual, prepare your setups well in advance and save up on your apples if you want to go hard.
Not to forget, around this time we should also see the NA-exclusive Thanksgiving Event and Banner. I'm not going to go into speculation about this right here as it's not really possible to predict this a year in advance, just keep it in mind: it should happen around here as well.

December

We're in December and Christmas is already out of the way. Weird, huh? Talk about a change in scheduling. 2019 was a strange year on JP and if we continue to follow that schedule in NA as we did in the past, it will be a weird year on NA as well. But things are as they are and DW moves in mysterious ways, as we all know.
In any case: While the early December will still feature the end of the Christmas Event and Masters grinding for presents, it will also feature andother Interlude Campaign with Interludes for Napoleon, Ivan, Anastasia, Lanling, Tomoe, Qin Liangyu and the Valks, with Napo, Ivan and Tomoe all receiving NP upgrages in the process.
And finally, didn't we forget something? Through all of the year, there was only one story Chapter with LB4, so... time for at least a second one, right? Right. Lostbelt 5.1 - Atlantis! We do, after all, get a second story chapter in 2021. The first act to the fifth Lostbelt finally arrives late in the year and concludes it all the same. Together with the chapter, Super Orion amd the unlimited Europa and Mandricardo release and that means, it's time for another powerhouse.
While you might know Orion only as a perverted bear from the hijacked Saint Graph where Artemis is really the Servant in question, this one is on a completely different level. A bear he might be, but he's an insanely strong singletarget Archer which, thanks to his selfbuff on NP, has a super easy time reaching absurd damage numbers with his facecards. I mean it, it's ridiculous how easy Super Orion is able to get to hundreds of thousands of damage per card. If you're into that and need a capable Archer, he's your man... well, maybe not exactly, Artemis wouldn't be happy if he was, but err... he's there for you? Maybe better that way.

Final words

So that's it for 2021 - or that's how 2019 was in JP. Overall it's a bit of a less exciting year than 2018/2020 was. Between just two story chapters, spaced out widely (assuming you don't count the Kama event), the lack of a Halloween Event and the missing Christmas Rerun, people started to feel like things didn't go quite as planned on JP anymore. Still, with several new powerhouses released, capable welfares and upgrades to servant we know and like, the game doesn't really get any worse than it was and there's lots to look forward to in 2021 as well. Even if the beat kind of slowed down a bit.
As with last year, I hope this helps you plan around the next year and maybe you are able to find one or two or five servants worth saving up for. There's potential there, most definitely. If you want to know how much SQ you will have at any given time, you can either use this spreadsheet with event rewards together with this calculator or you can make a copy of this spreadsheet that does the calculation for you. Both methods will give you a pretty decent idea about how things will be looking.
submitted by RuinousAmbition to grandorder

Argument for Jesus Resurrection

The argument for the ressurection is mounted, for those willing to debate, please read all., my stance is that Jesus did indeed rise from the dead and I’ll give my arguments for this proposition...
The disciples claim they had experiences of meeting the risen Christ with full conviction..... the disciples definitely believed they seen and touched the risen Christ.... even Bart Ehrman who is an atheist-agnostic quotes...... "I dont doubt at all that some disciples claimed this,... Paul, writing about twenty five years later, indicates that this is what they claimed, and i don't think he is making it up. The new Testament: A Historical Introduction to the early Christian Writings Page 301
and another christian scholar quotes "It is an equally secure fact that the disiples of Jesus saw him (in what sense is not certain) after his death...... thereafter his followers saw him. The Historical Figure of Jesus Page 13
The reason for this is many attestations, such as Paul's Epistles, Mark, John, Matthew, Luke and Acts, and even Josephus,
And there is no way to explain the rise of Christianity if this didn't happen, something had to happen which compelled the disciples of Jesus to begin preaching this..
So.. the disciples claimed they seen and touched the Risen Christ...... but i'm sure you would say why take their claims seriously? ......
When testimonies are unreliable is when the event happens quickly coz its hard to retain memory of the event... (the disciples of Jesus report Jesus eating and drinking with them and with them for a long period of time and even engaging in conversation with them , Acts10:41, Luke 24:26-49, John 21:1-4)... when someone is really expecting it such as people actually looking for big-foot or aliens ufos or if they are stranded and actually look for any near helicopters and start tricking their minds into seeing such things .. (the disciples were never expecting a dying messiah as the messiah would live forever, and never expecting a dying and rising God, this is so foreign to them, when their messiah died, it was like end game for them, especially dying on a cross, this is like end game for them....... and all the accounts embarrassingly report that the disciples had miss-understood the scriptures and what Jesus had claimed Mark 8:31-32 , Matt 16:21-23 , Luke 24:10-11 , Acts 1:6 , John 20:9) so they defs weren't expecting Jesus to rise from death, as even Thomas is reported not believing........ Plus the disciples all knew each-other and they knew Jesus so this event didn't happen with strangers...
But even if you write off the gospels as later myths.... we still have early creeds and oral sermons handed down which report these as-well (1 Corinthians 15:3-7 , Acts 2:32 , Acts 10:41 )
All the evidence really points to the disciples had to experience something...
Paul also passes down a creed as he received and passes down to others as-well...
1 Corinthians 15:3-7 New International Version (NIV)
3 For what I received I passed on to you as of first importance: that Christ died for our sins according to the Scriptures, 4 that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the Scriptures, 5 and that he appeared to Cephas, and then to the Twelve. 6 After that, he appeared to more than five hundred of the brothers and sisters at the same time, most of whom are still living, though some have fallen asleep. 7 Then he appeared to James, then to all the apostles,
Plus the disciples all claim that they seen Jesus together, so if you want to claim it was a hallucination... group hallucinations don't happen.... even if you take the gospels as later myths.... there is still the early creed reporting that Jesus appeared to the group, and early sermons in Acts which report Jesus eating and sitting with the disciples (Acts 10:34-43).... As Bart Ehrman also says "I dont doubt at all that some disciples claimed this,... Paul, writing about twenty five years later, indicates that this is what they claimed, and i don't think he is making it up...
So group hallucinations are improbable as they definitely did report that Jesus appeared in group settings (1 Corinthians 15:3-7 , Acts 2:32 ; 13:30-32) and multi sensory over a period of time (Acts 10:34-43 ; 22:7-9 ; 26:12-18)
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Also the narratives embarrassingly portray the disciples as cowardly running away for their lives when Jesus was going to be crucified.... (Matthew 26:31-35, 56 ; Mark 15:50 ; John 20:19 ) they even doubted the reports of the women (Luke 24:11, John 20:24-28) and when they first saw Jesus they were frightened (Luke 24:37-38)..... What this shows is that it cant be an hallucination, as hallucinations happen when someone really expects it but they weren't expecting a dying and rising Messiah God, that was foreign to them, and they definitely didn't expect Jesus to rise again and reported to be frightened when they apparently seen the Risen Christ...
Plus, all independent sources all claim the same thing about Jesus, is that He was in a bodily resurrected body, where he looks sort of like himself but slightly different and his body has new powers that they didn't have before (1 Corinth 15, luke 24, john 20-21 , Matthew 28)
The hallucination theory just doesn't fit, and even if you discount the gospels as unreliable, you still have to account for the early christians and the disciples all reporting a bodily resurrection and not a spiritual appearance...... the first christians are familiar with visions and claimed to have some... yet... they never said the appearances of Christ as mere visions... they firmly believe it was a bodily physical appearance... and that is what they preached from the beginning... ... as even sceptical scholar Gerd Ludemann quotes - we have no sound way to place the symbolic interpretation of Jesus' resurrection within the context of earliest christian resurrection beleif - Gird Ludemann
so since the appearances were in group settings, multi-sensory, do not vary, were not interpreted to be spiritual early on, weren't expecting it and weren't exited when seeing Jesus.... its pretty easy to dismiss hallucination theory
Plus Jesus appearances to skeptics.... James and the brothers (like Jude) of Jesus were not his followers before his crucifixion (John 7:5; Mark 3:31-35)
Examples of scholars who Accept this: Betz, Conzelmann, Craig, Derret, Ehrman, Funk, Hoover, Kee, Koester, Ladd, Lorenzen, Ludemann, Meier, Oden, Osborne, Pannenperg, Sanders, Spong, Struhlmacher, Wedderburn Source: The Risen Jesus and the Future Hope, Page 22, 24
And almost unanimously accepted is that Paul was an enemy of the church originally and a later convert... the reason for this is even Paul admits it himself and cites an early creed (Galatians 1:22-23 New International Version (NIV) 22 I was personally unknown to the churches of Judea that are in Christ. 23 They only heard the report: “The man who formerly persecuted us is now preaching the faith he once tried to destroy.”) and even another attestation from Luke the historian in the book of Acts..... it also meets the criteria of embarrassment that he says himself that he was a former persecutor and was in the wrong.........
The same goes for the conversion of James the brother of Jesus.,.. it is clear in the early material of Paul is that the early leader of the church was none other than James the brother of Jesus, (Gal 1:19; 2:9-12; 1 Corinth 15:7) and even Josephus who is outside the christian sources attests this in (Josephus Jewish Antiquities 20.9.1)....... however, all the sources suggests that James didn't believe his brother was the Christ during his early ministry (John 7:5 For even His brothers did not believe in Him., Mark 3:31-35) ........ No early christian would dare to attack a prominent leader in the church by claiming he was once Jesus' enemy.....
James wasnt even mentioned as one of them at the cross present with Jesus... and Jesus also surrendered his own mother to one of the disciples and why not to one of his own brothers if they were in the christian ranks?
(John 19:25-27 25 Now there stood by the cross of Jesus His mother, and His mother’s sister, Mary the wife of Clopas, and Mary Magdalene. 26 When Jesus therefore saw His mother, and the disciple whom He loved standing by, He said to His mother, “Woman, behold your son!” 27 Then He said to the disciple, “Behold your mother!” And from that hour that disciple took her to his own home.) this can also explain why most scholars including Bart Ehrman who is an atheist-agnostic accept James and his brothers were early skeptics and only converted after the crucifixion.
So the real question is what happened that turned these apposed to Christianity into believers?
Would they lie? why on earth would they do that?? the early church was a persecuted and hated minority with a messiah who was shamefully crucified as a criminal and they were to poor to afford their own tomb... Jesus has dishonoured the family and James was already opposed to his ministry, why would he lie when there is nothing to gain but shame and dishonour to suddenly reverse and proclaim his brother is Lord after he has already mocked him openly (John 7:1-9)........... Paul also had no reason to try this.. he was on top of his game, a prominent leader on the rise and making a name for himself while he persecuted the church (Philipians 3:4-6)... he had all going for him and suddenly he wants to leave all that and join the small persecuted minority that already hate him?
would you say it was an hallucination? neither of them were grieving especially Paul wasn't, James might have been but certainly wasn't expecting a dying and rising messiah to be his own brother who was just killed, a dying and rising messiah God isn't part of second temple judaism beliefs... in-fact Jesus' death would have supported James and his brothers conviction and supported their belief that Jesus isn't the messiah............. and the possibility that Paul had an hallucination is far more lower than James because usually people have hallucinations when they are grieving the death and expecting it not to be so...
What i'm doing is looking at the surrounding facts that accompany these claimed appearances and see which theory is the most plausible with them,... the theories such as the conspiracy, mythic and hallucination theory just doesn't add up with all the facts... what you would have to do is come up with your explanation of the facts and show which plausible theory accounts for the data..

Another thing that supports the preaching of the bodily resurrection of Jesus is the expectation of the gospel to the surrounding world.. the message of Jesus dying on the cross for our sins may sound warm and loving to us.... but in the ancient world, a culture which thrived on honour and status, such a message would be disgusting and horrendous...... Walter Bauer quotes "The enemies of Christianity always referred to the disgracefulness of the death of Jesus with great emphasis and malicious pleasure. A God or a Son of God dying on a cross! that was enough to put paid on the new religion." Crucifixion page 19)
David De-Silva notes the same thing in his work...'Unlocking New Testament Culture Page 51' "christianity was founded on a premise that should have failed the moment it began"
in such a culture, the christians preached to the gentiles to worship a man that was shamefully executed on a cross... a jewish man..... and romans looked down on jews... a jewish carpenter...... Cicero (A roman statesmen who served as consul in the year 63 BC called carpeting vulgar and compared it to slavery 'De Officiis Liber I XI.II'... on-top of that they preached a physical resurrection to the roman world which was opposed to most pagans...... Even more, the christians placed such high ethical demands on new converts that would of shocked most pagans (no temple prostitutions or extra marital affairs affairs).... morality was radically challenged by christians that flew in the face of most pagans....... the message about Christ was incompatible with the most deeply rooted religious ideology within the gentile world and the roman world....
this is also seen by the christian opponents and how they attacked christianity....
Celcus 177AD ... but if Jesus was really so great, he ought, in order to display his greatness, to have suddenly dissapeared from the cross. Origen: Contra Celsum 68
Even the Jews thought that this message of a crucified messiah was disgraceful.... a messiah who was shamefully crucified and murdered by the roman enemy.... their messiah was to be a conquerer, a king, who would restore an earthly kingdom of Israel and defeat Rome..... Jesus was shamed and disgraced,
So this really does cut the conspiracy theory, Knowing the expectation of the gospel would have no group of conspirators would ever have made it their core doctrine..If you'r going to make a message to gain a following, then make something that is appealing and not something that was expected to fail.....
Also taking into consideration the low status of women in the ancient world, it is unanimously accepted in the ancient world that the testimony of women were not to be accepted...
sources such as : But let not the testimony of women be admitted, on account of the levity and boldness of their sex - Josephus, Antiquities, 4.8.15 ..
.... Any evidence which a women gives is not valid to offer -Talmud, Rosh Hashana 1.8c ..
. Let the words of the law be burned rather than committed to women - Rabbi Eleazar ....
But the disciples preached this in their 4 sources Matthew, Mark, Luke and John, that women were the first and primary witnesses to the empty tomb....... this fact would be embarrassing for the early church and just couldn't be made up, ..... first they admitted they didn't even trust the testimonies of the women..
Luke 24:10-11
10 Now it was Mary Magdalene and Joanna and Mary the mother of James and the other women with them who told these things to the apostles, 11 but these words seemed to them an idle tale, and they did not believe them.
Also, all the early sermons in Acts and the Epistles always skip over the fact that women were the first to discover the tomb.,.. (1 Corinth 15, Acts2:22-36 , Acts 19:28-47, Acts 17:22-35, Acts 26:2-23) .... That doesn't contradict the gospels, but they tend to stay silent in this matter in order to make their early case because women aren't deemed to be credible witnesses.. but in the gospels they cant leave the fact out as they are the ones that play a key role in discovering the empty tomb and the first key eye witnesses to the resurrection therefore making their testimony necessary....... and for an ancient writer, this isn't something you would just make up...
Celsus even uses this to try discredit christianity... Celsus (177 AD).. That while alive he was of no assistance to himself, but that when dead he rose again, and showed the marks of his punishment, and how his hands were pierced with nails: who beheld this? a half-frantic woman, as you state, and some other one, perhaps, of those who were engaged in the same system of delusion." Origen: Contra Celsum 2.55
NT wright also says "As historians we are obliged to comment that if these stories had been made up five years later, let alone thirty, forty, or fifty years later, they would never had had Mary Magdalene in this role. To put Mary there is, from the point of view of Christian apologists wanting to explain to a skeptical audience that Jesus really did rise from the dead, like shooting themselves in the foot. But to us as historians this kind of thing is gold dust. The early Christians would never, never have made this up." There is a God Page 207
This fact about the women can only be explained if there really was an empty tomb and the early christians just wouldn't lie about women finding it, if they wanted to lie, men would be better candidates..

Another key evidence is the immediate proclamation in Jerusalem...
Paul mentions this as-well as Tacitus also mentions "Nero fastened the guilt and inflicted the most exquisite tortures on a class hated for their abominations, called Christians by the populace. Christus, from whom the name had its origin, suffered the extreme penalty during the reign of Tiberius at the hands of one of our procurators, Pontius Pilatus, and a most mischievous superstition, thus checked for the moment, again broke out not only in Judæa, the first source of the evil, but even in Rome," Tacitus Analls 15.44
Paul also mentions in his early epistles that the apostles were still preaching in Jerusalem in Galations 2:1,9
IF the evidence wasn't in their favour, then it would of made sense that the early church should of gone elsewhere, as cults often do, cult leaders often round up their followers and take them away from civilisation or take them elsewhere from a place you can be disproven, just like mormonism when Joseph Smith led his people away from new york...
But the Disciples of Jesus went straight to the Sanhedrin in Jerusalem and told them that they crucified their messiah and he has been raised.... if your an imposter then you would go somewhere else to proclaim your miracle, not in Jerusalem where they have the evidence, motives and the means to debunk it...
Could you say its a really really strong group hallucination that convinced the disciples so much that they know theres an empty tomb in the Jerusalem area and they believed they seen and touched the Risen Christ that they preach in Jerusalem?..... you could... but way more improbable .... as if Jesus is truly resurrected, of-course the disciples had the boldness to proclaim it there as God would have been on their side and all the evidence in their favour...
Going to the voluntary suffering of the disciples, coz this is a big part supporting the resurrection of Jesus... and you say "Lots of people willing to die for their convictions."... but you need to understand that their conviction was seeing, touching, talking with the risen Christ...
Multiple attestations of christian and non christian sources attest that early witnesses were persecuted and even martyred for their faith,......Tacitus analls 15.44 (nero persecution), Suetonius 2.51(jews expelled from Rome because of Christus), Josephus antiquities 20.9.1 (James the brother of Jesus was martyred)...
Paul admits intense persecution ... Colossians 1:24, 2 Corinth 11:16-33, Phil 4:12..
Clement of Rome also indicated that Paul and Peter were martyred (1 Clement 5:3-6)
and Paul even boasts about all his sufferings in (2 Corinthians 11:16-33).. and multiple attestations as-well as in Acts and the Epistles that many imprisonments and sufferings the early witnesses endured...
But of-course you would say why are the christians any different? people die for what they believe in all the time... thats true, people do die for some things that are false but they don't die for something they know to be false.... i'm not talking about christians who were martyred, but the disciples and witnesses of Jesus resurrection who died for believing they seen and touched the risen Christ......
The Disciples didn't just die for their beliefs, but for events they claimed had happened and knew very well if they were true or made up, liars make lousy martyrs, when you have nothing to gain, it doesn't make sense to make up and hold on to something that is going to get you nothing....
And the disciples weren't getting much for their new religion..
they were constantly facing persecution: Colossians 1:24; 2 corinthians 11:16-33, Phillipians 4:12; Book of Acts; 1Clement 5:3-6; Annals 15.44; Antiquities 20.9.1 ....
they didn't gain wealth .. 1 Corinth 8; 9,6; 2 Thessalonians 3:8, Acts 24:17
If they were doing it because they were insane and wanting a cult following, then they did some things that did not make any sense... like establishing churches in different regions they didn't have total control over, ... Paul moved from city to city establishing believers and then moving on, ... if your trying to establish a cult in a controlled group of people then you do what cult leaders do, you gather your followers,... remove them from society where there is a threat they will be pulled away by reality, and you keep them very close to keep them brain washed........... the apostles didn't do that, they stayed in populated cities and left their new churches to establish more churches in other cities which leaves your followers vulnerable for corruption...... and if you read the epistles that is what happened, the apostles had to revisit these churches and even write letters to correct them constantly........
it just seems there is nothing to gain in starting christianity unless its a elaborate plan to get martyred... if you say they hallucinated then it must be such a vivid hallucination to convince them that... but as i stated above, that the start of christianity, the preaching of a dying and rising messiah not being made up, and the disciples not expecting Jesus to rise from death .....plus its attested they were frightened when they seen him and not exited as usually hallucinations are when your expecting it so much and get excited when you see what your expecting.... so i doubt it could be such a vivid group hallucination.... but something that convinced them to the point they suffered and died for that belief, could only be attested is if they truly seen and touched the risen Christ.............

FINAL fact.... the existence of the empty tomb..
Skeptical scholar Jacob Kremer says "By far most exegetes hold firmly to the reliability of the biblical statements concerning the empty tomb." Die Osterevangelien Page 49-50
The evidence for the empty tomb is also strong......
Some people think that Jesus wasn't buried in a tomb as John Dominic Crossan thinks that and says the Romans would not allow a proper burial for criminals........... This is simply wrong, as we have a source from Josephus in Jewish War 4.317 that says crucified victims were buried .... and 2 independent early sources that say Jesus was buried in a tomb (Mark 15:42, - 16:8 ; Paul in 1 Corinth 15:3-8)
Also we have archaeological evidence of a crucified victim who received a proper burial (Search on google Yohanan Ben Ha'galgo)....
Jesus burial also meets the criteria of embarrassment since they say he was buried in a tomb of a Sanhedrin member which would have been dishonouring for the followers...... such a group had just murdered their Lord, and now they need to bum a tomb for him from one of the members of those who murdered their Lord?..........
Also the fact that the gospels attest the name of the person who buried Jesus.. Joseph of Arimathea means the tomb was public knowledge and its whereabouts was known, ..... so the public at any time would know about it and readily debunk it if the tomb wasn't empty......... and the account of the empty tomb is also embarrassing as its discovered by women, and as mentioned earlier, this isnt something you would make up...
Matthew also mentions the competing theory when he mentions 'the jews claim the disciples stole the body" (Matt 28)........
Justin Martyr writing later, had to respond to this theory, because it was the official story that the jews were telling people...
"*his disciples stole him by night from the tomb, where he was laid when unfastened from the cross, and now deceive men by asserting that he has risen from the dead and ascended to heaven." -*said by Trypho ..Justin Martyr Dialogue with Trypho Chapter 108
So Justin Martyr writing later, had to respond to this theory, because it was the official story that the jews were telling people... which is an interesting admission, because it says the body cannot be found, if the Sanhedrin still had the body, they could of had the gentiles bring it out for them and show the tomb was never empty..... but the christians never had to respond to this charge (so both sides agree the tomb was empty)...
Also we have the Nazareth Inscription, a stone found in the area and has written on it an Imperial Decree from around 41 AD.. it says...
"EDICT OF CAESAR: It is my decision [concerning] graves and tombs*—whoever has made them for the religious observances of parents, or children, or household members—that these remain undisturbed forever. But if anyone legally charges that another person has destroyed, or has in any manner extracted those who have been buried, or has moved with wicked intent those who have been buried to other places, committing a crime against them, or has moved sepulcher-sealing stones, against such a person I order that a judicial tribunal be created, just as [is done] concerning the gods in human religious observances, even more so will it be obligatory to treat with honor those who have been entombed. You are absolutely not to allow anyone to move [those who have been entombed].* But if [someone does], I wish that [violator] to suffer capital punishment under the title of tomb-breaker."
So it says the penalty for grave robbing is death, which is interesting because its very severe of how romans punished thieving, the romans wouldn't give such a high penalty for stealing something... normally they would need to pay for the damages 2 or 4 fold, and possibly face a flogging.... ......
But this would all make sense with the rise of Christianity and what Suetonius tells us..
Life of claudius 25.4 Since the jews constantly made riots at the instigation of Chrestus, he expelled them from rome
So 1.Some jews in Rome were preaching about Christs resurrection and riots resulted from it.
2 If Jesus tomb was not empty.
  1. There would be no need for this imperial decree about grave robbing because Rome could just produce the body to dispel the riots.
But because the only alternative explanation is that the body is missing because the body was stolen, Romes only option is to issue a decree to try to combat the accounts of the missing body........ if there was a body, then Rome could have just expel the riots with the body.... and not have to indirectly admit the body was missing with an Imperial Decree...
So it appears to be that from all sides, the body was missing (Jews, Romans, Christians).... either way, theres no evidence the empty tomb was just a fabrication and this is why most scholars today accept the empty tomb
The only theory that accounts for all this data is that Jesus indeed died and resurrected after 3 days....... the conspiracy theory doesn't account for the quality of the testimony of the disciples,...... the empty tomb,.... and why skeptics would join a small persecuted minority.......
the hallucination theory would only work if you posit some pretty miraculous hallucinations that causes the disciples to change their idea, skeptics to convert and posit crazy ideas of a dying and rising messiah no one was expecting or looking for... and a crazy hallucination that the tomb was empty as-well..

The resurrection theory that God raised Jesus from the dead accounts for all the data, it has
1.explanatory scope because it explains all the facts, it has
2.explanatory power as it explains all the facts with the least amount of effort, and
  1. Illumination, as it offers other areas in history as it offers how christianity truly did start.
c behan mccullagh who has outlined the criteria for weighing historical theories accepts the resurrection hypothesis meets these 3 things better than any other hypothesis.... however he also claims it fails the other two pieces of criterion (ad hoc and plausibility) Quotes
"This Christian hypothesis is of greater explanatory scope and power than other hypothesis which try to account for the relevant evidence, but is less plausaible and more ad hoc than they are." C Behan Mccullagh in his book Justifying Historical Descriptions Page 21.
Ofcourse there has been replies and arguments about if it really is less plausible and more ad hoc.... because it makes one more supposition..... (That God exists)....
I believe the hallucination theory cant account for multiple sensory hallucinations and group hallucinations and that they were so powerful that the disciples took it to their death and suffered for it.... plus a mass city hallucination of an empty tomb....
The conspiracy theory wants us to believe a bunch of frightened followers of Jesus , stole the body in secret in an over crowded city, to make up a story they weren't expecting and wasn't inline with jewish messianic expectations in order to get themselves martyred, and some of the skeptics decided to join this persecuted minority for no reason at all..
The resurrection theory only allows us to add the assumption that God exists, so it isn't more ad hoc than the other theories, and there are many arguments for the existence of God,...
If one insists on a naturalistic world view, and leaves no reason for theism being a possibility, then they can say the resurrection theory is improbable, but that also argues from a presupposition and not being open to evidence regardless of how one feels about it....
So the resurrection theory is more plausible and less ad hoc than the rest of the theories.... the evidence is mounted and that is why the non christian Anthony Flew was bold enough to say
"The evidence for the ressurection is better than for claimed miracles in any other religion. Its outstandingly different in quality and quantity - Anthony Flew "
The resurrection theory is the only theory that accounts for all the data and being less ad hoc and more plausible than the rest, its evidence is mounted, as Paulo Frederickson admitted "They must have seen something", and all the evidence favours that what they saw was the risen Christ.
submitted by themistery716J to DebateReligion

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